The Iran P5 + 1 Nuclear Deal, Marks The Shift In The Changing
Regional And Geopolitical Balance Of Power
By Feroze Mithiborwala
26 July, 2015
Countercurrents.org
The Nuclear Deal between Iran and the major global powers raises many complex political, strategic and economic issues in a warring world under transition to a post-colonial era of international relations. In was in this context that a delegation of Muslims decided to meet up with the Iran Consul General Dr. Masood Khannegi.
The Iran Nuclear Deal is a path-breaking agreement as finally the Western colonial powers had to recognize and accept the legitimate and sovereign national right of Iran to Peaceful Nuclear programme and the right to enrich Uranium. The Western powers led by the US soon realized that the threat of war and “all options on the table” were not going to deter the Iranian nation. Also the reality on the ground was far removed for the US to wage another war and despite Israeli provocations the Obama Government chose to undertake the path of negotiations. There was also tremendous pressure from the European allies, who saw the sanctions regime as unsustainable and harmful to their economic interests. Both Russia and China continue to have a deep and a meaningful economic and a strategic relationship with Iran. Also the larger world community which includes more than 136 nations under the umbrella of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), have all supported the right of Iran to a peaceful Nuclear Programme, as Iran is also a signatory to both the NPT and the IAEA. Iran has repeatedly stated that it is fundamentally opposed to a Nuclear Bomb and has no intentions of creating one and has repeatedly called for a “Middle-East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons.” Here again, Israel with more than 250 Nuclear Bombs stands protected by the US veto. Yet, Iran was demonized by the global corporate media. Thus apart from Israel and a few countries like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States were all supportive of this deal. But now apart from Israel, the Saudi-Gulf states too have accepted the agreement.
As for the International Community of nations, the deal agreed upon in Vienna has been ratified by the United Nations Security Council, thus making it international law. This by itself is a huge victory for Iran and her allies, as now Iran has been recognized as a responsible power with its sovereign right to a peaceful nuclear enrichment programme.
This is a far cry from the days when Obama had stated that the agenda is to “dismantle the nuts & bolts” of the Iranian Nuclear technology and programme. The British Foreign Minister had stated that Iran would not be allowed to have even 1 centrifuge at the beginning of the negotiations 10 years ago.
UNSC passed resolution 2231 as per the Vienna JCPOA, recognizing Iran’s right to a peaceful Nuclear Programme and an end to the sanctions regime.
This was remarkable and unprecedented for many reasons, namely:
1) That finally Iran was recognized as legitimate Nuclear power with the right to a peaceful nuclear programme and the right to enrich Uranium as its sovereign right, by all the nations of the world.
2) The UNSC has revoked all the 6 previous resolutions that had called for sanctions and barred Iran from a peaceful nuclear programme.
3) More importantly it was not passed under “Chapter 7” of the UN Charter, which threatens “The use of Force” as a consequence of noncompliance and is thus very dangerous as we have seen in Iraq, but in this case was passed under “Article 25”.
4) The Road Map outlines a period of 10 years after which all the international controls on Iran’s Nuclear programme will be lifted and will seize to exist.
Iran’s Economic, Cultural and Political potential
This deal also signal the rise of Iran as a regional power, even as it marks the decline of Israel both within the region and that of the much feared Israeli-Zionist Lobbies such as the AIPAC within the US.
Iran vast Oil and Gas reserves, the huge potential for financial investments, its indigenous manufacturing and industrial base and its commitment to the ideals of national resect and independence will ensure that Iran will arise as key major player on the regional and increasingly on the world stage. This has the potential to stabilize the Middle East region, with a political agreement that can be reached between the regional Middle-Eastern powers, without the outside interference of the US and Israel.
The Gains to India
India too will be a major gainer from this deal. From Oil and Gas exports, to the Chabahar port in Iran which India is developing (not far from the Gwadar Port which Pakistan has handed over to China). Iran also provides India with access to both Afghanistan as well as the Central Asian states. The possibility of the IPI Pipeline, or the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline are also a distinct plausibility, but far more serious and committed diplomatic efforts are required on that front. Even in terms of security, both India and Iran, along with Russia and China are preparing to stabilize Afghanistan in a post-US period. These very powers are also closely coordinating on the threat from ISIS and other Islamist terror organizations.
Israel as the major loser
A major loser in the entire deal has undoubtedly been Israeli PM Netanyahu, who has staked and built his entire political career on Iranophobia. Despite the worst, President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry proceeded with the negotiations and have successfully concluded the same. There is now a major lobby within the White House, the Pentagon and the American Military and Intelligence community that has decided that for far too long the Israelis have manipulated America to fight and wage it’s wars across the Middle East and North Africa, which have caused immense strategic and financial damage to American power. Thus it was time for the American Imperial elite to take on the Jewish Zionist cabal that has penetrated the centres of American power. But clearly the battle is not over as yet the Iran Nuclear Deal has to be cleared by the US Congress and Senate, where the Israeli lobbies are working overtime to ensure its defeat. Obama has threatened to use the Presidential Veto which is his prerogative and Constitutional right. But that again is an American domestic matter.
Iran’s gains to being internationally recognized as a legitimate Nuclear power
Right to Enrichment:
As signatories to the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Authorities), Iran has a right to Uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes was being unfairly denied by the Western powers. Iran like many other nations is preparing for the state where the Oil-Gas reserves would no longer suffice to provide energy in the future and thus has a need to produce 20,000 MW of energy from it’s Nuclear Plants. Thus again from a state of being totally denied any raw material and technology, Iran developed the entire 5-stage indigenous process, from the Mining to the Enrichment stage, which is a remarkable achievement, which very nations have mastered.
Iran has reached the stage of 20% Nuclear enrichment and has the capability to take it to the higher stages, but has abided by all international norms. It has applied the radio isotope technology for Cancer research and treatments of patients. Iran also agreed to a swapping of its enriched Uranium under a Brazilian, South African, Turkish initiative with America, but it was the US who walked away from the deal. Iran has mastered the technology of 20% Uranium enrichment on its own indigenous merit, after which the Fuel Rods are thrust into the Nuclear Reactor. All of these are very complex processes all achieved indigenously.
Centrifuges:
Prior to the sanctions, Iran had a very basic and rudimentary centrifuge process and very experimental. But the sanctions in fact compelled Iran to stop depending on transfer of Western technology and develop their own centrifuges and the entire indigenous nuclear technology. Thus from a mere rudimentary 3-5 centrifuges, the Iranian scientist developed more than 20,000 centrifuges, going from the IR1 to the more advanced IR8 versions, generating far more power. Iran has agreed to limit its centrifuges to 2/3rd’s of the existing, thus to 6000 centrifuges.
The claim that Sanctions brought Iran to the negotiating table is false.
If that was the very point then Iran would have surrendered its Nuclear programme, but that was not the case. It is true that Iran was facing many difficulties due to the sanctions in the Banking, Insurance, Shipping sectors and the export of its immense Oil and Gas reserves. But the Iranian nation was not willing to surrender its independence, self-respect and national pride. In fact it is the Western powers that have been compelled to come to the negotiating table, accept Iran’s sovereign right to a peaceful nuclear programme and begin the process of lifting the sanctions. To counter the sanctions, the Iranians created their own financial instruments of insurance, which was a major achievement bypassing the Western institutions in London and New York. Russia too which is facing sanctions is now building its own counter and alternative to the SWIFT to facilitate money transfers for trade and transactions. That even as new banking institutions and non-Dollar/Euro trade is being encouraged.
From the Colonial era of domination to the post-Colonial world. The Changing Political, Financial, Military Strategic Dimensions
Also the Western ploy of aligning with Israel and the Saudis to further consolidate their control over the Oil rich Middle-East, supporting the Saudi-Gulf Monarchies and the Israeli occupation of Palestine, is all beginning to fall apart. The strategy of unleashing the ISIS and other Islamist Jihadist terror organizations, to cause sectarian wars and partition nations is once again failing.
In fact that ISIS is now emerging as an extremely dangerous Frankenstein and the only true forces that are capable of taking on and defeating the sources of Wahhabi-Salafist terror are the nations that comprise the “Arch of the Resistance” or also referred to the “Arch of Security”, namely – Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, the Kurdish forces, as well as Yemen, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and to an extent Jordan. Thus a realignment of regional forces too is underway, which will further strengthen the forces of resistance and liberation.
Clearly a new anti-Colonial alliance is emerging across the region, even as it battles the Colonial Collaborator nations led by the Saudi-Israeli-GCC-Turkish alliance, supported by the Imperial US and Nato forces.
At the same time a new political, economic and military strategic global pivot is emerging centred around the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the EurAsian Union, built around Russia, China, India, Iran and the Central Asian nations. These nations and alliances are capable to take on the Western Nato bloc and the financial institutions centred around the Bretton Woods consensus, namely the IMF, World Bank, the American Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, centred in New York, London and Brussels, with Beijing and Moscow emerging as the new centres of power with global reach.
Feroze Mithiborwala is a peace activist in Mumbai. He led the Asia to Gaza peace flotilla.
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