Iran On The Offensive
By G. Asgar Mitha
01 July,
2008
Countercurrents.org
Iran understands US and Israeli
motives in the Middle East after nearly every other Arab and Muslim
country has either failed to do so or pretend not to do so out of
fear. Oil is the bonus prize but Israel’s security and US hegemony
feature predominantly. The only way to provide the security for Israel
is to ensure that all Muslims are reduced as vassals of the US Empire.
The countries from western North Africa up to Egypt, Jordan, Iraq,
the weak oil barons of the Arabian Peninsular countries as well as
Turkey that has provided recognition to Israel have all bowed down
before the second Roman Empire. Even Syria is now showing signs of
cracks. Pakistan has been engaged in fighting a loosing war against
terrorism in return for billions of dollars of aid which have found
their way into pockets of corrupt officials and will easily succumb
to give up its nuclear arsenal when the time comes. However Iran stands
defiant about its rights for a civilian nuclear program and its right
to exist as an independent nation. Thus far it has shown no signs
of relenting to any pressure of threats and sanctions.
Immediately following Israeli armed forces exercises conducted from May 28 to June 12 in the eastern Mediterranean, Iran is now rhetorically on the offensive. Even a most moderate Iranian voice that was favouring diplomatic solutions has joined the chorus sounding alarms about Iranian capabilities to counter Israeli and US offensives. Iran’s parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, commenting on the EU decision to freeze the assets of Iran’s Bank Melli has questioned the wisdom of this sanction while Iran is studying the incentives package. Next he has warned the five permanent UN Security Council members that “they are treading a path of unilateral illegal actions which could have dire consequences”. The EU sanctions are certainly illegal while the UN’s nuclear watchdog has been investigating if Iran is developing nuclear weapons capability.
IAEA’s El-Baradei has warned that any attack by US or Israel could lead to serious consequences and could turn the Middle East into a fireball. No small words. Iran may not be able to match the aerial firepower that the US and Israel possess but it has the capabilities to retaliate in other non-conventional manner by hitting American and Israeli interests and targets. Hezbollah who stands solidly behind Iran has demonstrated in July 2006 that Israel’s army and aerial power is no match when it comes to Hezbollah’s non-conventional tactics. Kuwait has categorically stated that it will not allow its soil as a launching pad for the US offense. Iraq, though a vassal state, could well be used for the offense but the US should weigh in the wisdom of getting boxed in by Moqtada al-Sadr’s army and the Shia sentiments for Iran if it decides to launch an offense from Iraq. Qatar is only a few short minutes from Iran’s missile attack and so is Dubai, the playground for the rich Arabs. It is very doubtful that either would be spared Iran’s wrath.
Neither the US or Israel well understand that Iran is not Arab. Culturally and religiously they are heavens apart as has been quite obvious from the provocative war by Iraq in which Saddam was supported by the financial strength of all Arabs and no less by the diplomatic and arms support from the US and USSR. Iran is homogenous unlike Arabs who are tribal. Iran has been anticipating US and Israeli designs and intentions against it since 1979 and if there have been any doubts, those have been confirmed following occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Hence Iran’s leadership has had several years to prepare for the ultimate showdown. They understand that a conventional approach would be futile and to thwart the US, Iran would have to resort to non-conventional and psychological tactics.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Commander General Mohammed Ali Jaafari has recently, in a newspaper interview, warned that oil will be used as a key psychological and financial weapon against the enemy. Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, an oil shipping lane 30 kilometers at it’s narrowest point in the event of an attack. Nearly 20% or 16 million barrels of crude oil passes through the strait. General Jaafari has reiterated Iran’s rights to use any and all means of retaliation including missile attacks. Iran has stockpiled deadly surface skimming missiles that could severely damage oil tankers, merchant and naval vessels not only in the Gulf but also in the Indian Ocean along the southern coastal border. Removing even half that oil flow from the consumer markets would cause oil prices to increase to $200 or higher. Interestingly the US is not reliant on crude oil imports from the Middle East but price could play havoc on the US economy which is already suffering. The more severe consequences of supply disruption would be impacted on India, China, Pacific Rim and Asian countries. Moreover Qatar is currently supplying 85 thousand tons per day of LNG produced from 7-8 billion cubic feet per day natural gas from North Field which is just south of Iran’s giant Pars gas field.
There are lessons to be learnt. In 1979 Iraq had the second largest and well equipped standing army in the Middle East when it provoked Iran which was grappling with internal issues following the revolution. Yet Iranians rallied around Ayatollah Khomeni and stalemated Iraq after 8 years of war. Iraqi Arabs were demoralised and Robert Fisk states in his book “The Great War for Civilization” that he was appalled by the high Iranian spirits on the battlefronts. No matter how well equipped any country’s armed forces may be but moral spirits are very important in fighting a prolonged war. Vietnam should serve as an example. The Americans can ill afford to loose their sons and daughters in a war because public opinion matters. The same goes for Israel as witnessed in the 34 day war with Hezbollah. Or for the matter with Arabs in the three Arab- Israeli wars when Israel wiped off the combined forces of Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq in just a few days and demoralized the Arabs using calculations, speed and strategy. The Iranians have been learning whereas the US and Israel have been forgetting. Maybe the EU should serve as their teachers after having suffered two world wars.
And in the event of a war with Iran, will the American public bear with patience the sufferings from high gasoline prices or maybe even rationing? Or will the Israelis be able to withstand the barrages of katusha rockets when Hezbollah opens a second front? Could there be a third and a fourth front from al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Iraq and a fifth front for the US from Moqtada in Iraq? The world should pay careful attention to Jaafari’s and Larijani’s words. After all Iranians are not Arabs like Iraq who sat back when Israel knocked out Osirak or Syria’s alleged nuclear installation last year. Iran has taught the Arabs lessons which, hopefully they’ve not forgotten and, hopefully, the US and Israel will not like to learn.
