Pakistan’s crisis Of Governance
By Naeem Malik
11 September, 2007
Countercurrents.orgPakistan's political crisis takes a critical turn, as a result of the forced abduction of Nawaz Sharif from Pakistan to Saudi Arabia. The action takes the illegality that prevails in international affairs to a new level. We had all heard of extra ordinary rendition where individuals, for whatever reasons are flown from one country to another by various security services, sometimes with the connivance of our own MI6 and other security services. Today, for the first time, perhaps a political leader of Nawaz’s stature is, against the ruling of the Supreme Court of his country, was bundled to another country. As yet there has been no protest from powers that have sufficient influence on the Military dictator that rules Pakistan today.
There has been international discourse on the on-going crisis in Pakistan for sometime among the military powers engaged in the region. The British Foreign Minister has visited the country few weeks ago, and must have discussed took the possible return of Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan and the crisis developing in Pakistan as a result of the increasing opposition to a military dictator ruling the country. The political negotiations between Musharraf’s representatives and Benazir were taking place in London. Various officials of the American administration were flying in and out of Islamabad frequently. On Tuesday the 11th September, Negroponte will be in Islamabad discussing the strategy on the war on terror. Condoleezza Rice spent some seventeen minutes on the phone with Musharraf in the middle of the night dissuading him from declaring emergency few weeks ago and ordered him to attend the Jirga in Kabul. He duly complied.
The West’s immediate problem is to maintain its already failing strategy of the War on Terror in Afghanistan. The Americans seem to be raising the bogey of a Nuclear Pakistan just as they talked about the Weapons of mass destruction prior to the invasion of Iraq. It is inconceivable to think Saudi and Lebanese politicians have got themselves involved in the crisis at the last moment without some prompting from the Americans. Boulton, the ex-American ambassador to the United Nations, clearly stated that American interests in the war on terror and Pakistan’s nuclear status means that Nawaz’s return to Pakistan must be prevented irrespective of any issues of democracy.
The Western powers have made the General central to their current strategy on their so-called war on terror, specifically in Afghanistan.. As a result, they want to maintain Musharraf in a position where he can effectively remain in-charge of Pakistan while sharing power with a more compliant civilian leader who can give a better semblance of democracy than the General’s current political partners within the country. Benazir has offered herself for the role. She has been successful in convincing the Western administrations that she is the woman for the job. However, she is not having the same success in selling herself to the highly politicised Pakistani public who blame her on two counts. They blame her for giving a lifeline to the military regime thus preventing a return to democracy. They also think she is working to the American agenda.
Within Pakistan the political conflict has been simmering for sometime. Two of its four provinces are at odds with the military dictatorship. In Balochistan there is an open rebellion against the rule from Islamabad. The military is accused of executing a tribal leader, Nawab Akbar Bugti, last year and the anniversary of his death this year resulted in a general strike in the province resulting in a complete shutdown of all businesses across Balochistan. In the North West Province, certainly in the tribal areas, there is widespread sympathy for the Taliban and currently over 90,000 Pakistani troops are deployed in the province to bring Taliban rebels under control. There is pressure from the Americans for the Pakistan Army to achieve what its own and NATO forces have failed to deliver in the six years of their occupation of Afghanistan. In the North West province bordering Afghanistan the Pakistani forces outnumber all the allied forces in Afghanistan. The number of casualties suffered by the Pakistan army and their kidnappings far exceed that of all the NATO forces put together.
The present political crisis within Pakistan was brought about by the General’s desire to extend his military rule unconstitutionally beyond the limit he himself imposed on holding the twin position of being President and Commander in Chief. The General thought sacking the Chief Justice would clear the way for him to extend his rule. The Chief Justice concerned had already questioned some of the administration’s actions, especially those associated with privatisation and selling of national assets. However, the General overestimated his own support within Pakistan. The General’s miscalculation leaves him today in a very difficult position politically. The judiciary and the lawyers were able to mount a national movement in support of the chief justice that allowed the judiciary to reinstate the chief justice. Today although, he was able to turn away Nawaz and dispatch him to Saudi Arabia his hold on the country remains precarious. As a result of the boldened judiciary, it is widely expected that the General’s actions will be challenged in the courts and it is highly likely that the judges would hold the General in contempt of court. This will force him to move towards an emergency in an attempt to make Pakistan again governable under his presidency. The alternative would be a return to democracy that, under present circumstances, will be seen with great suspicion by the Americans. It must be noted that it is the first time that the judiciary stood up to the General and declared his actions illegal. In the past, the same courts have allowed the doctrine of necessity to legitimise the various military takeovers and dismissal of civil governments. Let us see how far the current Supreme Court will go to challenge the army’s right to rule Pakistan in this crisis.
The General is now hoping some of the political leaders of the past would help him in maintaining his position and assist him in fighting the American war in the region. The Americans and the British are also hoping just that with Bhutto as a preferred option bringing about, in their own words, “a left of Centre government” with the same slogan “Roti/Kapra/Makan, (Bread/Clothing and Housing) as her father that ultimately resulted in his hanging. Next few weeks will determine not only the future of Pakistan but also would have a major impact on any strategy the Coalition occupying Iraq and Afghanistan would have to adopt in the next few months in their wars of occupation.
Pakistan as the front line state in the war on terror is a key to the strategy on the so-called war on terror. Pakistan, as a state, has mobilised more troops than any other, except United States, in this war on Terror. It currently has over 90,000 personnel mobilised just in the border areas around Afghanistan. Most of the activities, including the deaths of the NATO forces, including our British soldiers are in the region of Afghanistan bordering Pakistan. It now is ridden with internal dissension. The next few days and months will determine the future of Pakistan and not only that but may make the leaders of the Coalition in the War on Terror to rethink their strategy in their war on terror. As it happens, Negroponte is visiting Islamabad on Tuesday the 11th September to discuss the strategy in this war on terror with the General. Pakistan, a country with a population of 160 million, possibly the sixth largest country in terms of population, could soon become ungovernable and the struggle that will ensue could suck United States, if it is not careful, into a quagmire it would find difficult to extricate itself from.
Naeem Malik is a Human Rights Activist
[email protected]
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