Steady Game Of Brinkmanship
In Lebanon
By Mathew Maavak25 July, 2006
Countercurrents.org
The relentless blunderbuss against Lebanese towns and villages continue through this week. Days and nights get more crimson, adding enough color to punditries that obfuscate the five sacrosanct Ws of journalism.For a while, when the markets were shaken and stirred by the widening "geopolitical" risks that an Israeli invasion might entail, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke uttered a few magical words that hinted - and nothing more - at a halt in U.S. interest rates.
Oil prices suddenly fell from record highs, markets rallied from gloomy depths, new gasoline inventories were suddenly found, and the global consumer outlook remained robust.
With an abracadabra like that, the five Ws can be replaced by a single M - for "money."
As far as global finance is concerned, the slaughter in Lebanon can turn into another Iraq. The number of market bombings that occurred in Baghdad during the past three years alone can tax the mnemonic prowess of any news junkie lacking melatonin.
If Iraq - once a top exporter of oil - can be reduced to a heap of rubble and bones, why not Lebanon? After all, it too was once reduced to a mangled heap through nearly two decades of civil war and an earlier Israeli invasion. The past and present are hardly ruffling global "consumer sentiments."
Called that the matrix of power and finance. It's the weak and defenseless who die in any conflict; seldom the ones who either spark or perpetuate the spilling of blood. The hunt for Hezbollah leaders is translating into civilian casualties, and even if Nasrallah Hassan dies tomorrow, someone else will take his place. Terrorists come and go. It was only a few weeks back when the dreaded Abu Musab al Zarqawi was dispatched to virgin's paradise, only to be replaced by "what's-his-name."
I kid you not. I still don't know who replaced him. It never mattered, except for pundits who gushed over a new era for Iraq that would begin with the death of yet another turnstile terrorist.
Market bombings and U.S. casualties, however, continue to pile up in Iraq.
Terrorism financing doesn't come cheap. When AK-47s and a panoply of other guns and ammo are fired at U.S. soldiers, one really wonders where all these are coming from. Woe to the pundit who traces them back to Uncle Sam's steadfast allies in the war against terror.
Rumor has it that Osama bin Laden is enjoying his suite in the cavernous borders of the great ally Pakistan. Here, freedom has bloomed a thousand times for the dreaded goat. He even has the time and resources to post internet video shows while a $25 million bounty hangs over his head. Forget the bounty for a moment; such privileges of freedom, speech and time are not shared by the citizens of Pakistan, housewives in Manhattan and - take it from me - even journalists in Seoul whose pathos in time management are frozen on websites featuring news items belonging to the Ice Age.
When Afghanistan was bombed back to the stone age, one region was left unscathed to make things a little comfy for bin Laden. Till today, nobody dares venture into Waziristan as real men go to Baghdad and - when the time is right - into Khuzestan, and Tehran.
Anyway, how can you smoke bin Laden out of sovereign Pakistani territory? It is not legal, against U.N. charters and besides, the Sunni Islamic world might be enraged by a sacrilegious stomping of infidel army boots. In the meantime, the Israelis can do all they want to smoke, bomb, and pummel their way in the great hunt for Shiite Hezbollah militants.
Washington, London and the rest of Europe has endorsed this right of self-defense by Tel-Aviv. If Israel can do this, can't Uncle Sam exercise its right to self-defense by smoking bin Laden out his hideout?
That cannot be done as there are powerful forces arraigned against politicians, military planners and even pundits. One of them is called market forces. It constrains the Israeli war-machine from any misadventure against Syria. Remember, the surprise attack against a Syrian radar station on April 16, 2001?
I have got news for you. It cannot happen this time unless war is declared against Iran. If or when that happens, oil would rocket up to $100 overnight. There will be a massive Sunni-Shiite conflagration, oil would stop flowing from the region, and the Straits of Hormuz would be blocked.
Make that $200 per barrel in four weeks, and the globocops of market forces and energy security will be ready then to restore order. Some of them are well stocked. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve reportedly stands at 1 billion barrels, roughly enough for $18 months. For optimal market-warfare synergy, however, one has to wait till the hurricane season in the United States is over. But then extra chaos would add a premium for unleaded order wouldn't it?
Till that happens, consider the current conflict in Lebanon to be waged under controlled, market restraints.
And if you have some time, do a google on the provenance of Hezbollah UAVs, Raad missiles and other fantastic armaments. No matter how much they try to pin these on the North Koreans, Chinese missile designs like the Silkworm and C802 will appear on your screen.
That recent missile-flexing by Kim Jong-il - tyrant of Pyongyang and puppet of Beijing - now makes sense, or a connection. All that surplus spins over Nodongs, Hwasongs and Taepodongs cannot mask the Chinese technical expertise that either originally built or designed them.
But hey, new news. Real cowboys never take on Beijing while they march with silver bullets and freedom towards Tehran. But first, the Hezbollah has to be removed. See a pattern here? Tehran's options have to be limited in the run-up to a showdown in the Persian Gulf. Israel now wants a multinational force to enforce peace on a Hezbollah-free southern Lebanon.
If the Hezbollah employs a more potent Chinese cracker against an Israeli town, consider that request done.
Like money, the sinews of war can be easily recycled. Beijing almost became a recipient of the Israeli Phalcon AWACS till Washington put a stop to it. It didn't occur to the Israelis that any such technology can be picked apart and thrown back into circulation among hostile Arab regimes.
Some of them are already making a dent in the ongoing invasion of Lebanon. An Israeli Saar 5 warship was recently put out of action by a Hezbollah missile or UAV. It's sophisticated Elta EL/M-2218S radar was reportedly switched off during a coastal siege of Lebanon. The story goes that the Israelis underestimated the inferior Arab arsenal.
If you believe that spin, you'd believe anything. If that is the case, enjoy Fox News punditries for breakfast. Red herrings are the flavor of the day. Every day.
