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Significance Of Al-Zawahiri Video:
Is Hezbollah Winning?

By Taj Hashmi

28 July, 2006
Countercurrents.org

Ayman al-Zawahiri, through his latest video broadcast on July 27th appealed global Muslims to rise up in a jihad against Israel and the West. Considering the entire world “as a battlefield open in front of us [Muslims]”, al-Qaeda’s second-in-command stressed: “We cannot just watch these shells as they burn our brothers in Gaza and Lebanon and stand by idly, humiliated”.

This latest gimmick, full of ominous threats and vituperations, is an attempt to draw global attention and support from both the Sunni and Shiite camps. This message also reflects al-Qaeda’s bankruptcy and desperation. The Egyptian-born doctor-turned-terrorist also appealed the “downtrodden”, Muslim and non-Muslim, to join the jihad against the “tyrannical western civilization and its leader, America”.

The message is significant. It may signal some fundamental changes in the body politic of the Middle East or al-Zawahiri’s Muslim World”, from “Spain to Iraq” in the near future. It is significant because for the first time we hear al-Qaeda appealing not only to Sunni and Shiite Muslims to take up arms together, fight and die for “Islam”, but it is also inviting “downtrodden” non-Muslims to join its jihad. However, al-Qaeda’s track record, aims and objectives are neither appealing to the main stream Sunni Muslims, nor to Shiites, let alone non-Muslims.

It seems, Al-Qaeda will have to perform miracles to win over the estranged Shiites. Although during the last days of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s genocidal, indiscriminate killing of Iraqi Shiites al-Zawahiri had advised the former against the indiscriminate killing of Shiites, yet after the killing of al-Zarqawi last June, al-Zawahiri paid tribute to the slain leader in glowing terms. Neither al-Zarqawi stopped indiscriminate killing of Iraqi Shiites nor are his successors shying away from doing so. Al-Qaeda is engaged in an all out war against Shiites in Iraq, and whenever it gets an opportunity, it hits Shiites in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere. Considering Shiism a heresy the fanatical al-Qaeda regards the “heretic” Shiites the main stumbling block in its way to an Islamic utopia.

This has prompted an analyst to surmise: “The Enemy of My Enemy Is Still My Enemy”, hinting at the discomfiture of al-Qaeda at the growing popularity of Hizbullah after its latest showdown with Israel. Israel being the common enemy of both Hezbollah and al-Qaeda does not unite the two against the common enemy. Al-Qaeda till last week was in a state of panic, worried at losing out to Hezbollah, which had already won over sections of Hamas, a predominantly Sunni Palestinian organization. And then this least expected message came to open a joint Shia-Sunni front against Israel and the West.

Despite al-Zawahiri’s intriguing flirtation with the “downtrodden” non-Muslims, his urging them to join the battle against the West on class lines is not appealing to them at all. We know al-Qaeda is very unhappy with the Saudi regime for allowing non-Muslim American soldiers in Saudi Arabia. This according to bin Laden is the main raison detre for his jihad. It is highly unlikely that al-Zawahiri’s beseeching appeal to join his jihad against the West is going to move the amorphous non-Muslim monolith. Al-Qaeda’s all out war against non-Muslims, its singling out Jews, Christians and Hindus as enemies of Islam and Muslims has left little room for its making any headway among them.

Meanwhile something very dramatic, another least expected development has taken place. This time the surprise came from the battle fields of southern Lebanon. With the failure of the more numerous and well-armed Israeli commandos, backed by heavy artillery, tanks and air cover, to dislodge Hezbollah fighters from their strongholds, Israel seems to be in a state of panic. It may not be panicking apprehending defeat, but its failure in making much headway two weeks after the invasion is turning it nervous as this setback almost amounts to a defeat. While Lebanese media and people on the street have remained defiant, still publicly supporting Hezbollah and condemning Israel for the killing of civilians and devastating their country, some leading Western analysts, such as Robert Fisk and Christopher Dickey, are raising the very unpalatable questions for Israel: “Is Hezbollah winning? Is Israel losing the war in Lebanon?”


It is significant that while Israeli failure to score a quick and decisive victory in Lebanon is becoming headlines in the global media, al-Qaeda is trying to fish in the troubled water. And as there is no last word in war and politics, an unlikely al-Qaeda breakthrough in winning over sections of the Lebanese population, Sunni Palestinian refugees in the country for example, does not bode well for Israel and its allies. It is not unrealistic that as the desperate al-Qaeda is making overtures to its hated enemy, the Shiite Hezbollah, to fight together against Israel, if further pushed against the wall, Hezbollah might extend its hand towards al-Qaeda against their common enemy. There is no point debating who needs whom more desperately: al-Qaeda to remain relevant in the eyes of its sympathizers or Hezbollah to sustain itself against its over-powering enemy. As such, a marriage of convenience between the two groups is not totally out of the question.

We need to feel the Shiite pulse in Iraq and Iran. They also despise Israel. Israeli invasion of Lebanon and its primarily targeting Shiite and Hezbollah strongholds must have intensified their hatred of Israel and America. Al-Qaeda’s withdrawing support from the ongoing civil war in Iraq to win over Shiite support in Iraq and beyond could be catastrophic, Hezbollah, despite its strong reservations about al-Qaeda’s methods and philosophy, could be transformed into a dependable ally of the proponents of global jihad. Confusing Hezbollah and Hamas with al-Qaeda, as President Bush insists on doing, in the long run might bring them all closer to each other.

In sum, neither America should undermine the latest al-Qaeda overtures to Hezbollah nor should it oppose all attempts for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. America should read more into the al-Qaeda overture to Hezbollah. It came immediately after the circulation of the question in global media if Hezbollah is winning. Are the al-Zawahiri video and the vexing question about Israel not winning the war bringing back Condoleezza Rice to the Middle East this weekend for implementing an immediate ceasefire? It is very meaningful that Secretary Rice is going back to the region within three days after the diplomatic fiasco in Rome. It is also significant that Israel is no longer insisting on having twenty-odd miles of buffer zone between itself and Lebanon. It seems to be happy with a couple of miles of barrier, which in not enough to save the country from Hezbollah rockets.

In view of all these dramatic events – al-Qaeda’s overture to Hezbollah, Secretary Rice’s decision to go back to the Middle East three days after her recent visit and Israel’s willingness to have a buffer zone of not deeper than two miles – one cannot help but ask the question: Is Hezbollah winning?

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