Significance
Of Al-Zawahiri Video:
Is Hezbollah Winning?
By Taj Hashmi
28 July, 2006
Countercurrents.org
Ayman
al-Zawahiri, through his latest video broadcast on July 27th appealed
global Muslims to rise up in a jihad against Israel and the West. Considering
the entire world “as a battlefield open in front of us [Muslims]”,
al-Qaeda’s second-in-command stressed: “We cannot just watch
these shells as they burn our brothers in Gaza and Lebanon and stand
by idly, humiliated”.
This latest gimmick, full
of ominous threats and vituperations, is an attempt to draw global attention
and support from both the Sunni and Shiite camps. This message also
reflects al-Qaeda’s bankruptcy and desperation. The Egyptian-born
doctor-turned-terrorist also appealed the “downtrodden”,
Muslim and non-Muslim, to join the jihad against the “tyrannical
western civilization and its leader, America”.
The message is significant.
It may signal some fundamental changes in the body politic of the Middle
East or al-Zawahiri’s Muslim World”, from “Spain to
Iraq” in the near future. It is significant because for the first
time we hear al-Qaeda appealing not only to Sunni and Shiite Muslims
to take up arms together, fight and die for “Islam”, but
it is also inviting “downtrodden” non-Muslims to join its
jihad. However, al-Qaeda’s track record, aims and objectives are
neither appealing to the main stream Sunni Muslims, nor to Shiites,
let alone non-Muslims.
It seems, Al-Qaeda will have
to perform miracles to win over the estranged Shiites. Although during
the last days of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s genocidal, indiscriminate
killing of Iraqi Shiites al-Zawahiri had advised the former against
the indiscriminate killing of Shiites, yet after the killing of al-Zarqawi
last June, al-Zawahiri paid tribute to the slain leader in glowing terms.
Neither al-Zarqawi stopped indiscriminate killing of Iraqi Shiites nor
are his successors shying away from doing so. Al-Qaeda is engaged in
an all out war against Shiites in Iraq, and whenever it gets an opportunity,
it hits Shiites in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere. Considering
Shiism a heresy the fanatical al-Qaeda regards the “heretic”
Shiites the main stumbling block in its way to an Islamic utopia.
This has prompted an analyst
to surmise: “The Enemy of My Enemy Is Still My Enemy”, hinting
at the discomfiture of al-Qaeda at the growing popularity of Hizbullah
after its latest showdown with Israel. Israel being the common enemy
of both Hezbollah and al-Qaeda does not unite the two against the common
enemy. Al-Qaeda till last week was in a state of panic, worried at losing
out to Hezbollah, which had already won over sections of Hamas, a predominantly
Sunni Palestinian organization. And then this least expected message
came to open a joint Shia-Sunni front against Israel and the West.
Despite al-Zawahiri’s
intriguing flirtation with the “downtrodden” non-Muslims,
his urging them to join the battle against the West on class lines is
not appealing to them at all. We know al-Qaeda is very unhappy with
the Saudi regime for allowing non-Muslim American soldiers in Saudi
Arabia. This according to bin Laden is the main raison detre for his
jihad. It is highly unlikely that al-Zawahiri’s beseeching appeal
to join his jihad against the West is going to move the amorphous non-Muslim
monolith. Al-Qaeda’s all out war against non-Muslims, its singling
out Jews, Christians and Hindus as enemies of Islam and Muslims has
left little room for its making any headway among them.
Meanwhile something very
dramatic, another least expected development has taken place. This time
the surprise came from the battle fields of southern Lebanon. With the
failure of the more numerous and well-armed Israeli commandos, backed
by heavy artillery, tanks and air cover, to dislodge Hezbollah fighters
from their strongholds, Israel seems to be in a state of panic. It may
not be panicking apprehending defeat, but its failure in making much
headway two weeks after the invasion is turning it nervous as this setback
almost amounts to a defeat. While Lebanese media and people on the street
have remained defiant, still publicly supporting Hezbollah and condemning
Israel for the killing of civilians and devastating their country, some
leading Western analysts, such as Robert Fisk and Christopher Dickey,
are raising the very unpalatable questions for Israel: “Is Hezbollah
winning? Is Israel losing the war in Lebanon?”
It is significant that while Israeli failure to score a quick and decisive
victory in Lebanon is becoming headlines in the global media, al-Qaeda
is trying to fish in the troubled water. And as there is no last word
in war and politics, an unlikely al-Qaeda breakthrough in winning over
sections of the Lebanese population, Sunni Palestinian refugees in the
country for example, does not bode well for Israel and its allies. It
is not unrealistic that as the desperate al-Qaeda is making overtures
to its hated enemy, the Shiite Hezbollah, to fight together against
Israel, if further pushed against the wall, Hezbollah might extend its
hand towards al-Qaeda against their common enemy. There is no point
debating who needs whom more desperately: al-Qaeda to remain relevant
in the eyes of its sympathizers or Hezbollah to sustain itself against
its over-powering enemy. As such, a marriage of convenience between
the two groups is not totally out of the question.
We need to feel the Shiite
pulse in Iraq and Iran. They also despise Israel. Israeli invasion of
Lebanon and its primarily targeting Shiite and Hezbollah strongholds
must have intensified their hatred of Israel and America. Al-Qaeda’s
withdrawing support from the ongoing civil war in Iraq to win over Shiite
support in Iraq and beyond could be catastrophic, Hezbollah, despite
its strong reservations about al-Qaeda’s methods and philosophy,
could be transformed into a dependable ally of the proponents of global
jihad. Confusing Hezbollah and Hamas with al-Qaeda, as President Bush
insists on doing, in the long run might bring them all closer to each
other.
In sum, neither America should
undermine the latest al-Qaeda overtures to Hezbollah nor should it oppose
all attempts for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
America should read more into the al-Qaeda overture to Hezbollah. It
came immediately after the circulation of the question in global media
if Hezbollah is winning. Are the al-Zawahiri video and the vexing question
about Israel not winning the war bringing back Condoleezza Rice to the
Middle East this weekend for implementing an immediate ceasefire? It
is very meaningful that Secretary Rice is going back to the region within
three days after the diplomatic fiasco in Rome. It is also significant
that Israel is no longer insisting on having twenty-odd miles of buffer
zone between itself and Lebanon. It seems to be happy with a couple
of miles of barrier, which in not enough to save the country from Hezbollah
rockets.
In view of all these dramatic
events – al-Qaeda’s overture to Hezbollah, Secretary Rice’s
decision to go back to the Middle East three days after her recent visit
and Israel’s willingness to have a buffer zone of not deeper than
two miles – one cannot help but ask the question: Is Hezbollah
winning?