Hizbollah
Warn That Lebanon
Will See More Violence
By Robert Fisk
27 January, 2007
The
Independent
There
is worse to come. That is what Lebanon's opposition, led by the Hizbollah,
said only hours after they lifted their violent day-long "strike"
on Tuesday night and - here is the rub - there are few in this country
who do not believe it.
At least three deaths, 120
wounded and sectarian fighting across a hundred miles of Lebanon, we
are now told, was only a "warning to the government". If Christian
versus Christian and Sunni versus Shia Muslim is not enough, then, what
will be? And how planned is the coming tragedy?
Planning is what came to
mind yesterday among all those who live here. How, we are asking ourselves,
did those thousands of violent young men all have near-identical, brand
new wooden coshes? How come so many men emerged on to the Beirut streets
in near-identical hoods? How come the "general strike" called
to demand the resignation of the Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora, was
switched off in a matter of minutes?
But there were other, far
more disturbing elements to Tuesday's scandalous day of violence. Two
of the old civil-war fault lines - on the road north of Beirut and in
the suburbs of the city - were reopened. Siniora himself started warning
of the dangers of civil war and the United States - as Hizbollah must
have hoped - came out in support of the government, claiming, quite
falsely, that the violence came from the Hizbollah-led opposition.
It certainly did come from
their Amal militia ally but Sunni Muslim supporters of the government
were in gun battles in Tripoli - they continued yesterday - and the
"Lebanese Forces" youths of Samir Geagea, an ex-militia murderer
who supports the government, were engaged in pitched stoning battles
with other Christian Maronites.
Indeed, the inter-Christian
war, in retrospect, was probably the most vicious of the day. Most of
the wounded were hurt when Geagea's men tried to stop supporters of
the Maronite ex-general Michel Aoun blocking roads outside the capital.
Through some odd and tragic tradition of history, the Christian communities
in Lebanon have often fought cruel battles with each other. Aoun and
Geagea's forces killed each other at the end of the civil war. Even
during the Crusades, the Christians of Tyre fought each other when Salahedin
was at their gates.
Of the various foreign powers
taking sides in this frightening battle for power in Lebanon - and they
include Iran and Syria, of course, as well as the United States - one
might well ask if the destruction of the Christian population of Lebanon
was not part of their plan.
And what of the economy?
Lebanon nurses a £20bn (repeat: billion) public debt - one of
the reasons why the Shias as well as Aoun's Christian movement claim
that the government represents a corrupt clique rather than democratically
elected ministers. This, however, hides at least two salient facts.
Most of this monstrous waste was perpetrated when Lebanon lay under
Syria's hegemony when a Lebanese academic memorably told me that Lebanese
government officials did not hold PhDs in corruption. "They have
professorships in corruption," he told me.
And last year's war with
Israel, which began after Hizbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and
killed three others, added billions of losses to the economy - a figure
that will now be increased by the collapse of further foreign investment
generated by Tuesday's "strike".
Siniora is supposed to receive
more promises of foreign aid in Paris today. The Americans and Europeans
are sure to be generous. But it is also a fact that hundreds of thousands
of Shias, who suffered most at Israel's hands, genuinely support the
Hizbollah and do indeed demand the resignation of the government. How
can Siniora change their minds?
© 2006 Independent News
and Media Limited
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