Shia
Crescent Pierces Heart
Of Arab World
By Nicholas Blandford
17 July, 2006
The
Times
The present conflict between
Hezbollah and Israel is not just a local quarrel between bitter foes
who have been fighting each other in southern Lebanon for a quarter
of a century. It is an attempt to redefine the balance of power in the
Middle East.
As such it has implications
not only for Israel but also for the Western-friendly, Sunni-led Arab
states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.
The stakes are enormous.
By attacking Haifa, Hezbollah has transferred the conflict to Israeli
territory, undermining the latter’s longstanding military doctrine
of defeating its enemies on foreign soil.
“If the Israeli public
begins clamouring for a ceasefire, then the Israeli army will have been
neutralised,” Amal SaadGhorayeb, a Lebanese expert on Hezbollah,
said. “It will shatter the myth of Israeli invincibility.”
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah,
the leader of Hezbollah, appeared on television yesterday to warn Israel
that the guerrillas’ military capabilities remained strong and
that “we are still at the beginning” of the conflict.
“Our fighters are still
there and they love the confrontation,” he said. “They are
looking to show the world a new vision of victory.”
Such defiance may dismay
Israelis, but it will cause additional unease among Sunni Arab countries
who view the conflagration as a naked attempt by Shia-dominated Iran
to project itself into the heart of the Arab world. Saudi Arabia hinted
at this irritation with Hezbollah and its patron in an unusually frank
statement that came after the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers last
week. It called the operation an “irresponsible action”
and blamed elements in Lebanon “and those behind them”.
Recent months have seen the
crystallisation of an anti-Western alliance linking Iran, under the
hardline President Ahmadinejad, some Shia factions in Iraq, Syria —
which is ruled by the Alawites, a Shia splinter group — Hezbollah
and the Damascus branch of the Hamas movement.
In December 2004 King Abdullah
of Jordan famously described this emerging alliance as a “Shia
crescent”, a synonym that outraged Tehran but spoke tellingly
of Sunni Arab fears about the ambitions of Iran to become a regional
superpower capable of facing up to Israel. Although the inclusion of
the Sunni Hamas movement in the alliance weakens the notion of a Shia
crescent, the idea is not entirely fanciful.
Emboldened by this partnership,
Iran and Syria have refused to yield to intense international pressure
to comply with the demands of the West on several issues. Syria stands
accused by many of assassinating Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese Prime
Minister, last year, as well as continuing to support antiIsraeli militants
and insurgency groups in Iraq. The Iranians faces possible UN sanctions
if they continus to pursue their nuclear ambitions.
But Tehran, Damascus and
their Hamas and Hezbollah allies are calculating that the United States,
bogged down in the turmoil in Iraq, is unable to back its demands by
force, allowing them to play some high-stakes poker, including the current
confrontation with Israel. Iran increased the pressure yesterday by
raising the spectre of a regional war, saying that Israel would suffer
“unimaginable losses” if it attacked Syria. In turn, Mohsen
Bilal, the Syrian Information Minister, vowed a “firm and direct
response not limited in time or means” if Syria is attacked.
What worries the rulers of
Sunni Arab countries is that, as their citizens watch satellite television
images of the destruction wrought by Israel on Lebanon, sympathy will
grow for Hezbollah, regarded by many Arabs — Sunni and Shia alike
— as the only credible political and military force willing to
match words with actions by taking on the might of Israel’s military
force.
Perhaps that is why President
Mubarak of Egypt, who has little taste for Hezbollah, admitted yesterday
that “Israel will not be victorious in the current conflict”.
He said: “Israel should stop the killing of defenceless Lebanese
civilians.”
RELIGIOUS DIVIDE
IRAN 89% Shia 9% Sunni
PALESTINIANS 5% Shia 90%
Sunni
IRAQ 65% Shia 20% Sunni
LEBANON 40% Shia 20% Sunni
SYRIA 15% Shia 74% Sunni
Copyright 2006 Times Newspapers
Ltd.