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What Now For Lebanon?

By Franklin Lamb

16 January, 2011
Countercurrents.org

South Beirut -- Informed Congressional sources in Washington DC today
are confirming that the White House has informed Congressional Committee
Chairpersons and American allies that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon
(STL) will indict Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Wali al
Faqui (jurisconsult or Supreme Religious Leader) for issuing the order to
assassinate Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The US and Israel believe
Iran’s motive was that PM Hariri was considered a serious threat to Tehran
and Damascus because their intelligence agencies established that Hariri was
conspiratorially linked to Saudi Arabia, France and the United States--and
by extension, Israel.

One could be forgiven for getting confused by the “its Syria!, no its not its
Hezbollah!, ohmygod it’s really Iran!” labyrinth in the Hariri assassination
saga this past half decade. Late this week key Congressional leaders have
been advised by the White House that the execution order targeting Hariri
was delivered by Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds force chief Qassem
Suleymani to Hezbollah’s military commander Imad Mughniyeh. The US,
Israel and their allies intend to back with an international media campaign,
the STL theory that Mughniyeh and his brother-in-law, Mustapha Badr
al-Dine met on several occasions and handpicked the team that carried out
the assassination. Moreover, that Syrian President Bashar al-Aassad,
and his brother-in-law, Syrian intelligence chief Assef Shawkat, also played
key roles in organizing Hariri’s assassination. The US government expects
that each of these named individuals, including several Hezbollah leaders,
will be indicted and convicted, almost certainly in absentia.

Within the coming weeks the US Congressional lobby is expected to initiate
in the House and Senate a total cut off of American aid to Lebanon unless
resigned Prime Minister Hariri is immediately returned to office. This aid
cutoff will be vociferously demanded by AIPAC despite statements to the
contrary by American Ambassador Maury Connelly in Beirut earlier today.
Ambassador Connelly spoke to reporters following a meeting with Hezbollah
ally General Michel Aoun, leader of the Change and Reform parliamentary
bloc (FPM) at his residence in Rabieh. It was a rare visit indeed by an
American Ambassador with Aoun, a gentleman who the US Embassy has
privately labeled "megalomaniac". The visit by the US Ambassador reflected
Aoun’s newly enhanced political status this weekend. Ms. Connelly assured
the media gathering that “the United States remains steadfast in its support
for Lebanon's state institutions through our robust military, security, and
economic development assistance. We expect a new government will emerge
through constitutional procedures, and our strong partnership with Lebanon
will obviously endure.”

Few in Lebanon, or the region for that matter, give much credence to the
Ambassador’s statement, particularly as Hezbollah is now the de facto new
majority and can administer the government as its wants should it choose.
The Lebanese Parliamentary lineup is probably, as of today, 64 seats for the
US-Saudi team and 64 seats for the Lebanese National Resistance. Moreover,
the momentum favors Hezbollah since it picked up support from Walid
Jumblatt’s five member Progressive Socialist Party Parliamentary bloc, after
Jumblatt broke with Washington in 2008 (Walid delayed announcing his
switch until 2009 just in case Washington wanted to make amends which
apparently they did not). What caused Jumblatt to bolt from March 14 was
his friend Jeffrey Feltman's failure to deliver on promised support for
Jumblatt’s very risky May 2008 political challenge to Hezbollah. Feltman
pledged “all the help you need Walid. You can take it to the bank.” Jumblatt
has stated publicly that he felt "stiffed" by the Americans but he still likes
Jeffrey personally, if not politically.

The White House has made it plain that America expects Saad Hariri to be
returned to his Prime Ministerial post. That event is unlikely to occur.
Yet, the Hezbollah led opposition might allow Hariri to be a caretaker until
the 2013 elections—but only if he fulfills their earlier demands and
withdraws Lebanon from any association with the STL. The Obama
administration has informed Congress that it would view a Hezbollah-led
coalition assuming power in Lebanon as a direct threat to its strategic
interests in the region and would likely, at a minimum, respond with an
intense destabilization campaign. Frankly, there is little the Obama
Administration can do that it has not tried before to squeeze Lebanon and it
has little influence over events here partly due to the facts that the US is
way overstretched in the region and is barely taken seriously in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Levant countries
these days.

Moreover, President Obama is said by one Congressional source to believe
that Hezbollah is not interested in the hands on, “Jimmy Carter” style of
governing for Lebanon or being involved in dealing with every detail of
Lebanon’s very complicated sectarian system. The White House is said to
expect Hezbollah to play a major role in forming the next government and
some State Department staffers believe that it may even play a constructive
role in shaping a policy statement that will govern the day to day running
of the government. Few but the Israel lobby in Washington believe, or even
mention, the idea that Hezbollah has any interest in an Islamic Republic
system for Lebanon, repeatedly disavowed by Hezbollah officials including
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah is expected to increase
its focus on Israel and continue to apply its skills and manpower to build a
regional deterrence to Israeli aggression while working for domestic
tranquility and stability. “In short, as one Congressional staffer via email,
“Washington is not panicked by events in Lebanon at this time. We have
bigger problems in the region and we’ll watch the STL’s progress and
see what happens as a result of the indictments. But for sure we will not sit
on our hands if things get out of hand.” The White House is said to be
considering French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s idea of creating a "contact
group" comprised of United States, France, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and
Turkey to negotiate a solution to the latest crisis.

There continues to be much speculation about the timing of the Special
Tribunal indictments and what they will mean on the street. Bookies at the
Casino de Liban near Jounieh have odds that those indicted will be named
publicly on next month’s valentine’s day, the 6th anniversary of the Hariri
murder. Others are holding their bets arguing that using that date would
make the STL prosecutor’s office appear too politicized, a charge Prosecutor
Daniel Bellemare has been chafing under for more than a year. The STL has
said that the names of those indicted will be kept sealed when prosecutor
Bellemare sends them to Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen. The public will
likely learn the names of those indicted when arrest warrants are issued by
the Court.

Despite civil war still being talked about as a possibility here in Lebanon,
it has proven impossible to ignite to date even though it would suit US-Israel
political goals. The sage of Lebanon, former Prime Minister Salem el Hoss
predicts Lebanon is now headed for a long period of governmental
stagnation while domestic and foreign actors angle for political and military
advantages. Dr. Hoss explained that a civil war is unlikely given the
attitudes of the young generation and the fact that none of the sects could
successfully confront the Opposition led by Hezbollah and western powers
lack credibility here.

More likely would be Israel undertaking a White House green-lighted
invasion of Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah and Syria as a base toward the
weakening of Iran from ground level. Congressional sources report that the
Pentagon disagrees with Israel and intend to attack not from the base
but from above the top of the Resistance pyramid, which is Iran. The US will
hit Iran hard thus hopefully opening up another attempt to peel away
Syria and forced them to accept a peace deal with Israel. The scheme would
return the Golan heights to the Assad regime minus the 100 meters
strip along Syria’s Lake Tiberius. This sliver of lake front is where former
Syrian President Hafez Assad told President Bill Clinton in 2000, he used to
swim as a kid. He also told Clinton that Syria’s demand for its full return
was non-negotiable, the same position adamantly held today by the Syrian
government.

In Beirut, discussing the likelihood of street violence, a March 14th Hariri
supporter attending Professor Norman Finkelstein’s public lecture at AUB
last night told this observer that Lebanon needs stability and justice. "Let
all the dead from Lebanon’s black civil war period rest in peace. It’s time
to move on and rebuild our fractured country. I say all those who have been
killed in Lebanon are equal.”

Well almost.

The enthusiastic young man did not believe his counsel should apply to the
case of his personal idol, former P.M. Rafik Hariri, who while not the first PM
to be killed in office, is the first one to be killed with such powerful friends
insisting on “justice.”

Franklin Lamb is doing research in Lebanon and can be reached c/o
[email protected]





 


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