North
Korean Nuke Tests Say
World Must Return To Peace Agenda
By Praful Bidwai
10 October, 2006
Inter Press
Service
NEW DELHI, Oct 9
(IPS) - North Korea has shocked the world by detonating a nuclear
explosion and making good the threat it had held out six days earlier.
Pyongyang's action is one more blow to the existing global non-proliferation
order and will trigger greater instability in Northeast Asia and in
the Asian continent and world as a whole.
Yet, the world would be profoundly
mistaken to a make a knee-jerk response to the test by imposing sanctions
on North Korea and reiterating the importance of nuclear non-proliferation,
while ignoring the critical agenda of nuclear disarmament.
In particular, the Big Powers
would commit a blunder if they encourage or allow Japan and South Korea
to re-arm by citing a new threat from North Korea and stoking Cold War-style
rivalry and an arms race.
The United States must take
the lion's share of the blame for the failure of recent efforts to restrain
Pyongyang from crossing the nuclear threshold. Complicit in it are two
close U.S. allies and North Korea's neighbours, Japan and South Korea.
President George W. Bush
has over the past six years torpedoed the reconciliation process between
the two Koreas, aggravating their insecurities. In January 2002, he
named North Korea as an "Axis of Evil" state and pledged to
prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons.
This led North Korea to terminate
the 1994 Agreed Framework accord with the United States, under which
it had suspended its nuclear activities. Earlier, Washington reneged
on its commitment to annually supply North Korea 500,000 tonnes of fuel
oil for power generation. It also did not deliver on its promise to
build, with Japanese and South Korea's collaboration, light-water nuclear
power reactors in North Korea.
In 2003, Pyongyang walked
out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), citing security reasons.
After this, the U.S. joined
Russia, China, Japan and South Korea in six-party talks with Pyongyang
to negotiate nuclear restraint on its part. When these faltered, largely
because of Washington's inept diplomacy, the U.S. put North Korea under
quarantine.
As North Korea's isolation
increased, it flexed its military muscle. It conducted a series of missile
test-flights, including seven past July. One of these, of the Taepodong-2
missile, capable of reaching Alaska, reportedly failed. North Korea
became more frustrated and restless.
The North Korean regime observed
the U.S. invasion of Iraq, premised upon the trumped-up charge that
President Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Its rulers
probably drew the conclusion, attributed originally to India's former
Chief of Army Staff General K. Sundarji, that: "one principal lesson
of the [first] Gulf War is that, if a state intends to fight the U.S.,
it should avoid doing so until and unless it possesses nuclear weapons."
Three recent developments
seems to have clinched Pyongyang's decision to conduct the nuclear test,
and its timing. These include the appointment of Right-wing militarist
Shinzo Abe as Japan's Prime Minister, the lead taken by South Korean
foreign minister Ban Ki-Moon in the race for the election of the United
Nations Secretary General, and a contentious remark by China's ambassador
to the UN ahead of a Security Council meeting which was expected to
issue a strong warning to North Korea against testing.
U.S. envoy John Bolton said
last week that while Washington's Western allies were agreed on a stiff
warning, he was not sure "what North Korea's protectors on the
(Security) Council are going to do." In reply, Chinese ambassador
Wang Guangya said: "I'm not sure which country he is referring
to, but I think that for bad behaviour in this world no one is going
to protect them."
By testing a nuclear weapon,
North Korea has posed a serious challenge to the global nuclear order.
A cornerstone of this is the NPT, under which the non-nuclear weapons-states
(non-NWSs) agree not to make or acquire nuclear weapons and subject
themselves to inspections or safeguards under the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA).
In return, the NWSs must
undertake serious negotiations to eliminate nuclear weapons worldwide
and also offer civilian nuclear technology and materials to the non-NWSs.
However, the NWSs have refused
to undertake nuclear restraint and arms reduction, leave alone disarmament.
The International Court of Justice ruled in 1996 that they are obliged
under international law to completely eliminate nuclear weapons.
North Korea was an NPT signatory,
but walked out of the Treaty under Article XI, which permits this with
three months' notice.
Earlier, three NPT non-signatory
states, Israel, India and Pakistan went nuclear.
The North Korean test will
be seen the world over as successful defiance of the U.S. It will be
viewed as an object lesson by Iran, which too has said it would consider
walking out of the NPT if it is cornered by the Western powers over
its nuclear activities. It is certain to encourage, not deter, future
breakouts.
There is a strong likelihood
that Pyongyang's crossing of the nuclear Rubicon will strengthen forces
in Japan which want to rewrite its post-War constitution by allowing
the country to build a full-fledged military capability with offensive
forces. Under Abe's leadership, Japan will probably consider a radical
revision of a principle, which commits it not to "bring in",
make or acquire nuclear weapons.
Japan has a stockpile of
40.6 tonnes of plutonium, allegedly for civilian use. This is enough
to make 5,000 nuclear weapons. It plans to annually stockpile another
8 tonnes.
Similarly, South Korea might
be tempted to develop nuclear weapons in "self-defence". Technically,
the two Koreas are still at war although a ceasefire has held between
them since 1953. (However, there are occasional skirmishes. On the weekend,
South Korean troops fired warning shots after North Korean soldiers
briefly crossed the border.)
Taiwan too may feel that
the North Korean test has strengthened the case for nuclearisation.
Any move in that direction is certain to bring about a hostile response
from China.
Ironically, tit-for-tat responses
by North Korea's neighbours will only spur an arms race. Northeast Asia
will get trapped in a "security-insecurity syndrome" in which
a state arms itself in the perceived interests of security, but ends
up losing it because its adversaries develop superior capabilities.
Such rivalry spells insecurity
and instability for all concerned. This climate will encourage other
countries too to acquire more lethal weaponry.
Pakistan has had major armaments
transactions with North Korea. Its missile programme is based on North
Korean designs. These were reportedly traded in exchange for uranium
enrichment technology developed by the A. Q. Khan network.
Yet another destabilising
factor is the U.S.'s ballistic missile defence (BMD or "Star Wars")
programme. One component of it aims to provide a "theatre BMD"
shield to Japan and South Korea against possible threats from North
Korea and China. Washington's likely response to North Korea's test
would be to accelerate work on this.
This is bound to elicit a
hostile response from China. Beijing has long regarded the U.S. BMD
programme as directed specifically against itself.
A nuclear and missile arms
race centred in Northeast Asia, but not confined to it, will make the
world a far more dangerous place.
However, such an outcome
is not inevitable. It can be averted if the NWSs address one of the
root-causes that drive nations to acquire nuclear weapons. This lies
in double standards. The NWSs want to prevent the spread of nuclear
weapons, but stiffly oppose fulfilling their part of the global bargain
by moving towards their global elimination.
So long as the NWSs treat
these terrible mass-destruction weapons as a currency of power, other
states too will want to acquire them.
North Korea proves that even
a desperately poor, industrially backward and politically isolated country,
which has recently suffered from famines, can acquire nuclear weapons
if it is determined to do so. The technology is not hard to master.
At least 40 other countries
of the world can develop a nuclear capability. Their resolve not to
do so will be weakened unless the spread of nuclear weapons and the
NWSs' addiction to them are ended.
North Korea's test should
shake the NWSs out of their complacency and double standards.
(*Praful Bidwai is an independent
nuclear analyst, co-author of a prize-winning book on South Asian nuclear
weapons and global disarmament, and a founder-member of the Coalition
for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace, India.)
Copyright © 2006 IPS-Inter
Press Service
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