To
“Save Iraqi Democracy” Bush’s
War Will Target Shias Too
By M. A. Muqtedar Khan
12 January, 2007
Countercurrents.org
Two months after the America
people expressed overwhelming lack of confidence in the President Bush
and his war in Iraq by handing over the House and the Senate to the
Democrats after twelve years of Republic control, President Bush finally
admitted that strategic mistakes have been made in Iraq . In a much
awaited speech he acknowledged his own responsibility for the failures
in Iraq and then outlined a new strategy for ensuring the survival of
Iraqi democracy.
The twenty minute speech was full of rhetoric and staid platitudes about
the “burdens of freedom”, “the hope of liberty”,
“the author of liberty”, the “decisive ideological
struggle”, and was very thin on substance. It even had a “Borat
moment” when he shared the intelligence with American people that
Al Qaeda planned to establish an Islamic radical empire in the Al Anbar
province of Iraq .
Indeed the new strategy outlined by President Bush had much less to
offer than has been expected by experts and pundits. There was no clear
plan to bring about a political solution to the Shia-Sunni divide; there
was no firm commitment from the U.S. to provide economic relief to a
country where unemployment is reaching 60% in many areas and there was
no indication of how the US plans to regain the confidence of the Sunni
population who are resisting both the new Iraqi regime and US occupation.
The plan basically has three new elements. One is a tactical shift in
fighting insurgency. In the past U.S. troops would clear towns and neighborhoods
and then leave allowing the insurgents to return. But now the President
has made a commitment to clear and hold areas thereby preventing insurgents
from returning. The additional twenty one thousand troops to be deployed
are necessary for holding cleared areas.
Perhaps it has not occurred to the planners in the Pentagon that if
the insurgents and sectarian fighters cannot return to their old neighborhoods
in Baghdad , then they may shift their locus of operation to other cities
and provinces. According to this plan by November 2007, nearly all 18
provinces in Iraq will come under Iraqi supervision, giving the fighters
many options for new theaters for their activities.
The second new element in the plan is of a strategic nature and truly
significant. The President has clearly indicated that unlike in the
past when the US refrained from disarming Shia militias and taking actions
against them, the US now intends to act against them. His exact words
on this score were: “In earlier operations, political and sectarian
interference prevented Iraqi and American forces from going into neighborhoods
that are home to those fueling the sectarian violence. This time, Iraqi
and American forces will have a green light to enter those neighborhoods
— and Prime Minister Maliki has pledged that political or sectarian
interference will not be tolerated.”
The promise is clear. The U.S. intends to go after Shia militias and
PM Maliki will not protect them. This remains to be seen. Nouri al-Maliki’s
government needs that support of the thirty seats in the Iraqi parliament
that Shia militant leader Muqtada Sadr controls. If Maliki will not
provide political cover for Sadr and his brigands then Sadr will not
support Maliki’s government and it could collapse. It is clear
that Washington is serious about this. A day before President Bush made
his speech Maliki warned Muqtada Sadr’s Mahdi army to disarm or
face US and Iraqi forces. The grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani too has
expressed his support for disarmament of militias regardless of their
identity. While Sistani’s influence on Iraqi politics has receded,
he support is nevertheless significant.
Will the new strategy work? The chances are remote. This is clearly
a case of too little too late. It also depends on many contingent factors.
For example, will the Iraqi forces which are predominantly Shia act
decisively against the Shia militias? Or will US troops have to face
the Shia militias on their own? In the short term one can expect an
immediate rise in US casualties, how long will America public be able
to stomach this?
The third element of the plan is a decision to confront Iran . The President
has deployed an entire carrier force to threaten Iran , deployed a battery
of Patriot missiles to defend moderate allies in the region from Iranian
escalation and has said that US troops will target and destroy Iranian
and Syrian networks in Iraq .
The most important recommendation of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study group
was that US should establish a dialogue with Iran and Syria and solicit
their help in stabilizing Iraq . Instead of listening and acting on
this wise advise, the Bush administration has once again succumbed to
its neoconservative instincts, and has decided to initiate a confrontation
with Iran and Syria . In a way this is an escalation and even expansion
of the war in Iraq to now include Iran and Syria as targets of US military
operations.
There is a major problem with this new strategy and I wonder if American
policy makers realize it. With this speech President Bush has practically
declared war on Shias. He has decided to go after Shia militias in Iraq
, and Shia regimes in the region. Until now the US has been fighting
only with the Sunnis -- Al Qaeda and the Iraqi insurgency. But from
now on US troops will be fighting al Qaeda, Sunni insurgents, the Mahdi
and Badr militias and perhaps even Iranian and Syria intelligence and
commando units.
Apparently, the Bush administration’s appetite for war and violence
is not being satisfied with Afghanistan , Iraq and Somalia ; it is actually
seeking to open new fronts with more enemies.
M. A. Muqtedar Khan is Assistant Professor at the University
of Delaware and a Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Saban Center at
the Brookings Institution. He is also a fellow of the Prince Alwaleed
bin Talal Center at Georgetown University. His website is www.ijtihad.org
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