Will The Lebanese Army Enter
The Nahr el-Bared Camp?By Alexander Jenniches
30 May, 2007
Levanticipation.comIn March, Levanticipation.com wrote about possible operations of the Lebanese Army inside Palestinian refugee camps. These days, many people think a storm on the Nahr el-Bared camp could be only days away. Though, the preconditions for such operations have dramatically changed. And this option does not seem to be any longer on the table.
The assumption in March was, that the Lebanese Army could go after possible Al Qaeda cells inside the camps if such action is needed to hold down an uncontrolled spread of such groups. The scenario was meant to be well planned, consisting of clandestine and blitzkrieg operations.
Now the pattern has totally changed. The Lebanese Army is stuck in a day-by-day confrontation with the alleged al-Qaeda linked Fatah al-Islam group inside Nahr el-Bared. The moment of surprise is gone. In case the Lebanese Army went in to eliminate the group´s members and structure, a huge toll of victims can be expected - within the army ranks but also among civilians, of which many thousands still reside inside the camp. Especially the latter possibility must be extremely worrisome for the Lebanese government.
Around 400.000 Palestinian refugees are living across Lebanon, located in twelve camps. Nahr el-Bared is the second largest of them, after Ain el-Helweh near Saida (Sidon). A huge toll of Palestinian victims - which seems to be unavoidable in such a neighborhood where the Fatah al-Islam group is hiding among them - in an all-out battle probably would spark a major uproar among the Palestinian population.
This, of course, is not what the Siniora government could handle easily these days, when the country is alternately shaken and paralyzed by the government-opposition standoff. Such a scenario could just be the spark which leads to an explosion of the fragile situation in Lebanon.
The Lebanese government, accordingly, has to choose between bad and worse: loose more authority by let go the Fatah al-Islam group in some way or risk a confrontation with the Palestinian community, a situation which could run totally out of control, with violent clashes dragging in other fractions, such as Christian, Sunnite and Druze.
A loss of governmental authority on the other hand can be lived with for the time being without short term repercussions. Such loss could be witnessed during the January/February clashes, when the Army did not stop - possibly because it couldn´t - street riots. They were brought to standstill after fraction leaders of different political parties and spiritual leaders asked their followers to calm down. Life went back to relative normality.
The long term consequences of such governmental authority loss, though, could be devastating. They may be no less than a starting signal for any group trying to establish itself in Lebanon, especially in the Palestinian refugee camps which are up till now more or less lawless territory. The Lebanese government is not allowed to control the camps due to an Arab agreement dating back to 1969.
What most likely the Siniora government will do is to let go the Fatah al-Islam group in some way, at least not bring their members before court or sentence them severely . This might be handled in many different ways: the Fatah (PLO), which is governing the camps across the country, could take over responsibility to control and contain state-endangering militias, foreign countries could promise to contain them either and propose to evacuate such groups to their own soil.
What exactly will be the - at least temporary - solution is uncertain at this point. But there is good reason to assume that the Lebanese government will at the end not confront Fatah al-Islam directly. Not yet, and not under the circumstances that the group is hiding among Palestinian civilians.
There is no easy way out for the Siniora government, and the consequences of either decision could catch it up sooner or later very painfully.
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