What
Is Behind The Latest
Crisis In Lebanon?
By Alexander Jenniches
28 May, 2007
Levanticipation.com
The theories
Two conflicting theories
are circulating these days about the renewed violence in Lebanon. One
says, Syria is behind the group that clashes with the Lebanese Army,
trying to stir again turmoil in Lebanon to either make a forced comeback
in a possible civil war or trying to send messages concerning the UN
Hariri tribunal. The second theory is, that the US and Saudi Arabia
stopped funding anti-Shiite groups in Lebanon which they wanted to use
as a tool against a Shiite rise in common and Hezbollah´s influence
in Lebanon especially.
The Syrian connection
While Syria for sure will
not let go Lebanon easily - as every big neighbouring country does with
smaller ones -, there is no need these days for Syria to destabilize
Lebanon as forcefully as has been the case last week.
Syria together with Iran
is in a very good negotiating position with the US over Iraq. In addition
to that, the international community, Israel and the US do need Syria
as a stabilizing factor. Syrian President Bashar Assad is a well known
target. Replacing him by force could lead to unforeseeable eruptions
in the region.
Syria plays a major role
to suppress the region´s most feared groups, al-Quaida and al-Quaida
affiliated organizations, whose ideology could easily spill over to
other countries if not contained by force. Syria since long is struggling
with that problem internally and not only cracks down on somehow democratic
groups in the country but moreso on any kind of Sunni Muslim movements
who have a highly mobilizing potential in Syria and of course consider
the ruling Alawite class as heretics. Both are natural enemies.
Hence, there is no need for
Syria at this moment to stir a major turmoil in Lebanon, as has been
witnessed recently during the battle for the Nahr el-Bared refugee camp.
Furthermore, there is strong indication that Russia may not go along
with the western states in the UN Security Council concerning the Hariri
tribunal.
It may block it as long as
major pressure is not taken off Syria´s shoulders. Russia is re-emerging
slowly as a strong player in the Middle East, having a traditional good
stance among Arab nationalists who reject US influence and Israel´s
hegemony in the region.
The US agenda for
Lebanon
Two months ago, Levanticipation.com
wrote about the US
roadmap for Lebanon. This plan might not have changed basically
for the short term. But the latest conflict shows that something is
going on behind the scenes between the two most influential powers in
Lebanon: the US and Iran.
Shiite Iran is a staunch
ally of Shiite Hezbollah. The western countries with financing of Sunnite
Saudi Arabia - put simply - are supporting the Sunnite-Christian Lebanese
government.
With the situation getting
worse almost daily for the US in Iraq, the Bush government has more
or less secretly been involved in talks with Iran, which is the major
power broker in Iraq and most likely funding and training anti-US Shiite
groups in the country. Behind the curtains, US-Iran talks about Iraq
have been taking place for months now.
The results surfacing are
hinting in the direction, that Iran wants to see solid proof of US goodwill
in Iran´s - and Hezbollah´s - sphere of influence, Lebanon,
before calming down the situation in Iraq.This sign of goodwill might
be stopping cold the Fatah al-Islam group together with possibly others
which the US
and Saudi-Arabia were funding as tools against Hezbollah
in case the latter would gain to much influence in Lebanon.
It is very telling that the
Hezbollah-led protest camp in downtown Beirut is still in place but
almost deserted and Hezbollah is not pressing the Lebanese government
on the streets for political change and in the case of the Hariri tribunal.
The Shiite group is staying put and just blocking parliament by its
ally president of parliament Nabih Berri who refuses to convene sessions.
What probably directly led
to the current clashes between the Lebanese Army and the Fatah al-Islam
group is that funds for the group were stopped and some of the group´s
members just raised their own funds by robbing a bank, which belongs
at least partly to the Hariri family who assumably is also behind the
financing of the group. Then, while the robbers where hiding in Tripoli
and the Nahr al-Bared camp, security forces went after them, and the
fight began.
The Lebanese government meanwhile
is in a very difficult position. First, it tolerated and secretly backed
the US and Saudi-supported al-Quaida-affiliated Sunnite Fatah al-Islam
militia on its soil to have a tool against Hezbollah - in case the situation
gets more violent and to prevent a Shiite rise in Lebanon.
Now, the US - most likely
- asks to dismantle that militia by force due to talks with Iran, which
is demanding a trust before acting in Iraq to calm down the situation.
Recent comments by US president George Bush - this summer would be a
decisive period in the war - indicate that he already does expect an
improvement of the situation.
The US president might not
have said this - facing the non-deniable chaos in Iraq - if he was not
expecting promising support - from Iran. This must be a warning sign
for the Lebanese government. History could repeat itself in Lebanon
where the US has often shown a short-sighted use-and-drop strategy regarding
its allies.
Conclusion
If Iran is that strong concerning
Iraq as assumed by many, the Fatah al-Islam case could only be the first
step in a US policy shift to leave Lebanon to its fate. In consideration
of the sufficiently equipped, rivalling fractions within the country,
this could lead to more violence sooner or later.
Suggested Reading:
Associated
Press - U.S. and Iran begin talks in Baghdad (Published:
March 28, 2007)
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