Re Reporting Iraq Civilian Deaths
By Gideon Polya
12 November, 2004
Countercurrents.orgAside from the sustained lying, massive public deception, illegality, the horrendous "collateral" civilian casualties and immense US corporate benefit (nearly US$400 billion extra military expenditure by the US alone since 9/11), there is a further outrageous scandal associated with the post-9/11
US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, namely the NON-REPORTAGE of horrendous civilian casualties by mainstream global mass media.SOME mainstream global media have FINALLY permitted their readers to glimpse the horrendous reality of Iraq civilian deaths thanks to a scientific article in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet - however the figure typically quoted of "100,000 over 18 months" is a MINIMUM ESTIMATE as outlined in estimates #1-4 below.
#1. The group of US scientists that just published an article in the top British medical journal The Lancet (online, 29 October 2004) found 0.1 to 0.2 million civilian "excess deaths" in post-invasion Iraq; that mortality increased post-invasion; and that violent death increased dramatically post-invasion.
>From primary survey data, The Lancet article calculated a post-invasion Iraq annual mortality rate of 12.3 deaths per 1000 (corresponding to 300,120 persons per year with The Lancet article's assumption of a population of 24.4 million ).
However their pre-invasion estimate of an annual mortality rate of 5.0 deaths /1000 corresponds to 122,000 persons per year - yielding an upper estimate from The Lancet of "excess deaths" of 178,120 people per year - corresponding to 297,000 "excess deaths" in 20 months of US war and occupation in Iraq.
This upper estimate (based on data in The Lancet) of nearly 300,000 "excess deaths" due to the US invasion and occupation in Iraq is equivalent to ONE HUNDRED (100) World Trade Centre atrocities.
This US study is consonant with EXISTING UN and UNICEF data that has been COMPREHENSIVELY IGNORED by mainstream global media.
#2. According to UNICEF (2004), in 2002 the under-5 infant mortality was 1,000 in Australia, 108,000 in Iraq and 283,000 in conquered Afghanistan (up from 277,000 in 2001) - noting that these countries have populations of about 20, 24 and 22 million, respectively.
>From UNICEF data it can be CONSERVATIVELY estimated that the post-invasion under-5 infant mortality has been about 0.2 million in Iraq and 0.9 million in Afghanistan. These estimates largely IGNORE the effects of invasion and the evil reality that in Iraq (since 1991) and Afghanistan (since 2001) there has been an excess "collateral" mortality of about 2000 Muslim children for every US combat death - as compared to the murder of about 0.3 Jewish children for every Axis military death in World War 2.
Of course decent people have to realize that in the end there is no distinction between racist, commercially-driven "collateral mass mortality" and "mass murder".
#3. According to the UN, the current annual death rates in Iraq's poorest Arab neighbours Jordan and Syria are 4.3 and 3.9 persons per 1000, respectively - and the values range from 1.9 to 3.7 persons per 1000 for the prosperous and peaceful Arab Gulf States.
If we assume a conservative estimate of an annual death rate in a peaceful, non-occupied Iraq of about 4 persons per 1000 then we would EXPECT 97,600 Iraqi deaths per year - as compared to the post-invasion estimate by the US scientists of 300,120.
The difference - the "excess mortality" due to the US invasion and continued war and occupation - is 202,520 deaths per year or about 340,000 after 20 months of US-imposed war and occupation.
#4. Using UN and UNICEF data it has been CONSERVATIVELY calculated that total "excess mortality" (excess death, avoidable mortality) in war-ravaged Iraq since 1991 has been about 1.5 million (with under-5 infant mortality totalling 1.2 million) [see G. Polya, Australasian Science, June, 2004] and that the "excess mortality" has been about 1.2 million in post-invasion Afghanistan (with the under-5 infant deaths totalling 0.9 million).
The same kind of calculations (performed after a 12 month detailed research analysis of global mortality) yielded estimates of total post-1950 "excess mortality" (avoidable mortality) of 1.3 billion for the World, 1 billion for the First World-violated Third World and 0.5 billion for the Muslim World -
a Muslim Holocaust indeed and about 100 times greater than the World War 2 Jewish Holocaust (6 million victims) and the "forgotten" World War 2 Bengal Famine that killed 4 million Hindus and Muslims in British-ruled India.The ruler is responsible for the ruled. A formal complaint has been lodged with the International Criminal Court citing Coalition war crimes in Iraq, specifically the illegal invasion of a remote, non-threatening country and horrendous post-invasion Iraq civilian deaths in that Coalition-occupied
land.Silence kills. Silence is complicity. Please inform everyone. Save the children.
Dr Gideon Polya
29 Dwyer Street, Macleod, Melbourne, Victoria, 3085, Australia
e-mail: [email protected]
Day & night telephone: +61 3 9459 3649[Credentials: Dr Gideon Polya published some 130 works in a 4 decade
scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text
"Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (Taylor & Francis, New
York & London, 2003), and is currently writing a book on global mortality].
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