Iraq's
Phase II: Deadlier Than Ever
By Youssef M.
Ibrahim
13 August 2004
GulfNews
Iraq
entered a deadlier and murkier second phase of fighting and bloodshed
this past week. This is certain to deepen the American quagmire, threaten
the longevity of Prime Minister Eyad Allawi's government and, unfortunately
for Iraqis, usher in a new phase of internecine killing via suicide
and car bombings, such as the hideous attacks in Mosul and Baghdad against
Christian worshippers.
By far the most
ominous new development could be a widening of the conflict that draws
Iran into it. Allawi has officially named his giant neighbour, Iran,
as trouble-maker-in-chief last week, accusing it of standing behind
the rebellious cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and the fighting that left more
than 300 dead in the holy city of Najaf.
This is a serious
charge as grievous damage was done to innocent people, their commerce,
their homes and some of the holiest Shiite sites there.
From Iran's perspective,
there is little question what happens in Najaf is its business. Any
damage there cannot leave a single Iranian ruler the option of remaining
neutral, regardless of whether they are among moderates or hard-liners.
The Shiite religious heritage is a shared one between Iraq and Iran.
It is possible to
see Iran pushing a fight against American troops, but standing behind
damage to Shiite shrines is not credible. Yet, Allawi, a feisty and
tough customer, has now officially thrown the gauntlet, as if he were
asking for a fight at a time when he has yet to demonstrate his government
can protect all Iraqis against insurgents, domestic and foreign alike.
Iran wasted no time
pointing it out. In his toughest speech yet, former Iranian President
Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani, currently head of the equivalent of the Iranian
National Security Council - Majlis Tashkhis Masaleh Al Nizam - minced
no words in last Friday's sermon in Tehran, when he warned the Americans
and Allawi's government of a rise in the number of suicide bombers targeting
them inside Iraq in "defence of Islam".
New turn of events
Iraqi nationalists
are split over the meaning of the new turn of events. Some argue that
the Iranians and their various militias and supporters started the trouble,
taunting the Allawi government and the Americans.
Other, equally sincere
Iraqi nationalists say it is the Americans who are encouraging the whole
mess in order to turn Iraq into the one area where they can trap all
fundamentalist-inspired militant movements, Iraqi or foreign, and kill
their members.
The truth, as usual,
lies in between, but the Bush administration and Iran have been heading
for a high-noon duel for some time now. It is unfortunate that Allawi
has chosen his camp with the Bush folks. It may cost him, and the whole
Gulf region, dearly.
One way or the other,
"pandemonium" best describes what is coming. The present mess
has three components: American, Iraqi and foreign. It would seem the
new American occupation authorities wasted little time repeating the
same errors of the last administration of General Ricardo Sanchez and
Paul Bremmer III.
They waged yet another
"final" battle to "finish off" the ragtag Mahdi
Army of Al Sadr, and this backfired. The Mahdi, as in the past, will
disappear now and re-appear later, inside Baghdad itself - in Sadr City,
home to two million Shiites, where an American helicopter was shot down
in this latest fighting. Such is the nature of guerilla warfare.
Inside the Iraqi
camp cards have been reshuffled too. The two Shiite figures locking
horns are Allawi and the young Al Sadr. Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani,
who until now presented the Americans with some hope of boosting their
views among Shiites, has conveniently left Najaf just before the fighting
began, for medical treatment in London.
Part of what he
may have left behind too is his prestige and influence. Great Shiite
religious leaders do not go away when their people come under attack.
The outsiders' card
has also been thrown into the game. A real nightmare would start if
Iran makes the decision - which Iranian officials assure me they have
not yet done - to actively engage the harassed, tired, demoralised and
overstretched American troops trapped behind their barbed wire enclaves
in Iraq.
This would be a
real war of attrition. It must be recalled that Iran has long arms inside
Iraq, which have supported over 20 years of engagement ever since the
eight-year-long Iraq-Iran war that started in 1980.
Iran has since built
not one but several Iraqi militias, similar to the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
It has a huge intelligence apparatus deeply penetrating the Iraqi army,
police, security forces and government. And it has open borders from
where more men and weapons can pour into Iraq.
Above all, it seems
not to be intimidated by American reprisals. This is all reminiscent
of the famous Ho Shi Minh trail in Vietnam through which, some 40 years
ago, North Vietnamese troops and arms poured into South Vietnam to produce
the first serious American military defeat since World War II.
Know how to fight
Should Iran start
moving its chess pieces inside Iraq what will be America's and Allawi's
counter-strategy? One is not aware of what more the Americans can do
(invade Iran?) or what Allawi has up his sleeve.
Some in the Bush
administration talk of bombing 50 Iranian sites, including the nuclear
reactor. This would absolutely unite Iranians. And these guys know how
to fight long wars and take huge losses until they prevail. As for Allawi,
as tough as he is, we must remember he remains untested.
* Youssef M. Ibrahim
, a former Middle East correspondent for the New York Times and Energy
Editor of the Wall Street Journal, is Managing Director of the Dubai-based
Strategic Energy Investment Group.