Iran's Elections Bolster Hardliners
By Angus McDowall in Tehran
The Independent
22 February 2004
Hardliners in Iran could pursue a more aggressive nuclear policy and crack down on the country's reformists after taking control of parliament in an election boycotted by their opponents.Pragmatic conservatives struck a deal with Britain, France and Germany last November to open Iran's nuclear facilities to inspection, hoping a softer international line could buy some respite on the scrutiny of domestic issues, such as human rights. But many hardliners were deeply unhappy with the deal, and Western diplomats believe they see the stifling of domestic opposition as an opportunity to pursue a weapons programme more rapidly.
The US, which was suspicious of the deal in the first place, had its concern reinforced by the discovery last week of advanced centrifugal equipment for enriching uranium to weapons grade. Iran had failed to declare the equipment, and has had its involvement in the international nuclear black market exposed by the downfall of Pakistan's nuclear "father", Abdul Qadeer Khan.
In a blow to the reformist cause, turnout in Friday's election to the Majlis was far below normal levels, but not as low as those advocating a boycott had hoped. Nor is the result decisive enough for conservatives to claim a strong popular mandate, but that is unlikely to stop the unelected religious establishment suppressing demands for change.
President Mohammad Khatami now faces a final year in office without the support of a reformist Majlis. When he cast his vote on Friday, for an election he had labelled unfair, the President wore a telling frown and was rumoured to have written down only a few names out of the 30 allowed for each voter.
With Friday's result a foregone conclusion after the disqualification of more than 2,300 reformist candidates, the election was all about turnout. Early results suggested participation of a little under 50 per cent, dropping to 30 per cent in Tehran. "Voting will not make any difference in people's lives, it is all just a game. The reformists just let people think things were improving, without making any real changes," said Khorram, a shopkeeper in Tehran.
Many going to the polls expressed cynicism about the process, and said they only wanted to get the mark in their identity cards showing they had voted. Reformists allege rumours were deliberately spread to suggest that people who failed to vote might have problems with bureaucracy. They say the level of spoiled ballots is likely to top 10 per cent, and that many votes were cast at random. That could lead to a second round of polling in some cities in a couple of months.
Although the conservatives are now in the ascendant, they are deeply divided over how to proceed, with pragmatists favouring a softer "bread and circuses" approach to rule and hardliners wanting revenge on their reformist enemies. Hojjatolislam Qavami, one of the disqualified MPs and chairman of the Majlis legal committee, told The Independent on Sunday the opponents of reform could become "Taliban-like and limit all legal freedom". Some reformists actually hope for a crackdown in the belief that this might rekindle public support for them.
So far hardliners seem to be setting the agenda. But now they will need to focus on improving the economy as a pivotal element of their strategy to retain power. Economic reform has been severely hindered by constant bickering between the Majlis and non-elected conservatives in recent years, and can now be pushed through more quickly.