The
08 Challenge
By
Bill Henderson
02 January,
2008
Countercurrents.org
If
you understand that climate change is an emergency then the challenge
in 08 becomes winning a mandate for almost impossible systemic change
in a United States still in ideological thrall to failing markets.
If you understand
the dangers of non-linear climate change - how close we could be to
one of several thresholds to runaway climate change - then you recognize
the imperative of significant greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission reduction
immediately. Climate change is a global-scale problem requiring a global
emission reduction solution. Because America is the world's dominant
economic and military power and model and leader in economic development,
any reasonable mitigation strategy must begin and be led by the United
States.
But after
two decades of failed attempts at mitigation there is abundant evidence
that emission reduction - let alone emission reduction of a scale necessary
- isn't possible within our American-model, presently configured socio-economies.
Service sector dominated economies require a growing dynamic stability
which does not allow for any constraints on the expansion of fossil
fuel use within the continuing expansion of the economy.
So although
there is now acceptance within the US and globally that climate change
is human caused and a danger, and although most of the candidates for
president have hopeful, nuanced climate change mitigation strategies
in their platforms, the track record over two failed decades of mitigation
attempts is no shortage of words and plans, intentions and instruments,
but no real end to the accelerating increase in fossil fuel use and
subsequent GHG emissions - so don't count on serious mitigation even
after the Bush Admin debacle years are over.
The challenge
of 08 isn't the election of Clinton or Obama, or even of a strong, enlightened
and activist Congress. The challenge for climate change activists is
the election window of opportunity for building a consensus amongst
Americans, all Americans, that climate change is an emergency that requires
massive reconfiguration of the US and global economy so that emission
reduction of a scale necessary becomes possible.
The challenge
becomes making climate change THE 08 campaign issue and, even more improbably,
winning a mandate for government action equivalent to WW2 government
power for economic reconfiguration.
Americans
must be educated/forced out of denial about the humanity threatening
dangers of climate change, convinced of the need for immediate, emergency
action, and informed about the limitations of market mechanisms in our
overshoot context. More generally, Americans must accept the need for
a much more disciplined, ethical management of man, of themselves, to
protect our common future.
The science
community must become much more innovative in educating the American
public about climate change danger. A much more robust consensus about
the immediacy and humanity threatening nature of the climate change
danger must be built quickly, hopefully before the election.
The emerging
vision of a new alternative economy based upon quality with a greatly
diminished material throughput must become reachable: a bridge must
be designed to carry us from our economy today to an economy where sustainability
is possible. Presently impossible systemic change - relocalization,
powering down, etc. - will require governance innovation with a bridging,
stabilizing plan clear and acceptable to the majority of Americans and
not vetoable by the present powerful interests.
Necessity
is the mother of invention; the hardest part is recognizing the need
for change and escaping BAU.
Climate change
is now acknowledged as the biggest market failure ever. The inability
of markets to develop alternative energy sources while oil was cheap,
leading to an unplanned for and therefor much more painful peak oil,
has to be the second biggest example of market failure. Americans are
also awakening to the scourge of Affluenza: it seems that markets just
weigh volumes not quality: an American Nightmare of obese, unsatisfiable
consumers mindlessly shopping in sprawling, soulless wastelands with
no future wasn't anybody's intention was it? And questionable banking
creativity in an America drowning in debt after decades of greedy bubble
blowing has grievously undermined trust, the underlying foundation of
trade and markets themselves.
Hopefully,
in 08 Americans will awaken to the emergency and pragmatic, scientifically
based innovation and action will push aside the residue of failing ideology
and needed change will become possible.
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