Musharraf’s Crisis Of Legitimacy
By Taj Hashmi
20 November, 2007
Countercurrents.org
The latest developments in Pakistan are intriguing and puzzling indeed. After all the criticisms at home and abroad of his abrupt declaration of emergency or de facto martial law in Pakistan followed by the sacking of judges and arrests of thousands of people, Musharraf’s latest attention-grabber is appointing a caretaker Prime Minister to hold elections in January, declaring to doff his uniform by December 1st.His latest gimmick, reflective of his desperation to remain in power by legitimizing his undemocratic rule, is not at all a positive step towards democracy and the rule of law. It would have been a partially positive move had the General-turned-“elected President” withdrawn the emergency, restored the judges, including Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, released all the lawyers, journalists and other opponents of martial law, restored the freedom of the press and electronic media. Meanwhile he should have doffed his uniform, apologizing to the nation for his rash and reckless declaration of emergency and the violation of human rights by the police and military, especially since the imposition of the de facto martial law on 3rd November.
As we know, the vested interest groups among the top brasses in Musharraf’s armed forces are not only running a state but also the much maligned “Military Inc.”, a state within a state. Consequently it is least likely that relinquishing its undue and unearned privileges, the military machine will cheerfully handover power to the elected representatives of the people. So, one has hardly any reason to be that optimistic about the smooth transition of power in Pakistan to a civilian administration.
Meanwhile, he will be waiting in the greenroom watching how the compliant judges legitimize his “election” by a handful of acquiescent lawmakers. One finds the news about his blackmailing judges very disturbing. According to some reliable sources several Supreme Court judges and their children were secretly filmed in compromising positions with lovers and prostitutes as part of a dirty tricks campaign by the country’s feared military intelligence …. ‘The message was clear,’ … If you rule the wrong way, these will become public and your family destroyed.
Thus Musharraf’s getting the nod from the Supreme Court, legitimizing his election to the highest office of the country as a serving general, should not excite anybody in anticipation of the restoration of democracy and fundamental rights in Pakistan. His unyielding stand on holding the parliamentary elections under the state of emergency amounts to deferring democratic transition for an indefinite period.
However, unlike his predecessors, the generals who ran the country for years with semblance of legitimacy due to the exigencies of the Cold War, Musharraf will find it difficult to legitimize his rule irrespective of what he decides to do now. General Zia’s “jihad” against the Soviet Union and Musharraf’s apparently positive role in the “war on terror” are comparable with regard to their earning acceptability, if not legitimacy, to the Free World. However, Musharraf’s unpredictable somersaults and specious grounds for the emergency that it is to save the country from the “pro-Islamist” judiciary do not hold water. Judges who recently released Islamabad’s Red Mosque militants, including a would-be suicide bomber, have retained their jobs unhindered.
Meanwhile Bhutto has asked Musharraf to step down not only as the army chief but also as the president of Pakistan. She has also ruled out any possibilities of her working together with Musharraf as she feels he has “lost all credibility”. She has compared his “election” with the fraudulent Politburo “elections” in the Soviet Union. Mocking Musharraf’s justification for the emergency, Bhutto thinks that the only terror his regime “seems able to confront is the terror of his own illegitimacy”.
While foreign leaders, including the UN Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon, have been pressing Musharraf to lift the emergency, Musharraf is fast losing his credibility at home and abroad. It is yet to be seen the implications of the 10-day Commonwealth ultimatum declared November 4th for him to end the emergency.
It seems Pakistanis will be getting more of the same thing. Sham elections and fake democracy if Musharraf survives; promises of fresh elections and restoration of democracy under a new set of military rulers, if he has to step down now. One is not sure how long Musharraf can endure and survive the bitter criticism and opposition to his emergency rule, both from within and outside the country. He seems to have no allies other than the apparently loyal generals around him. He has antagonized intellectuals, middle-class liberal democrats and ultra-orthodox clerics. What could be the safest estimate is that despite his well-planned designs to survive and rule, his demoralized troops (unwilling to fight fellow Muslim insurgents) and the growing Taliban-al-Qaeda menace in northwestern Pakistan do not bode well for his survival. His days seem to be numbered and the eroding legitimacy too frail and fragile to sustain him for long.
Although one is not sure if Pakistan, not Iraq, is the “most dangerous nation” (Newsweek, October 29, 2007), one cannot be complacent either about the country’s top civil and military leaders’ duplicitous stand on al Qaeda and Taliban insurgents and Dr A.Q. Khan’s getting away with nuclear black marketeering in the recent past. The magnitude of the problem of instability in Pakistan demands more attention than the question if Musharraf will remain in power by successfully selling his despotism as ‘Enlightened Moderation” for long. Now, what and who is going to replace him should be the most important question. And nothing but democracy and accountability can either salvage Pakistan or subdue Islamists to put an end to terrorism in the long run.
Taj Hashmi is a Professor, College of Security Studies APCSS, Honolulu, Hawaii
* Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are my own and do not reflect the policy or position of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies or the US Department of Defense.
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