Kashmir Conflict And The Emerging Political Scene In South Asia
By Shah Faisal
25 September,
2008
Countercurrents.org
The sequence of events in Jammu & Kashmir since May 26, 2008 has once again added some definite firmness to the possibility of an early conflict resolution. With the calls of separation being echoed by many czars of the Indian civil-society, it seems imminent that the familiar cycle of quiescence-chaos-quiescence may finally break now in favour of an acceptable conclusion.
However, parallel to the emergence of a novel political scene in Kashmir, a lot more action and drama has heated-up the regional and the larger global race-course also, something that will have an important bearing on the final outcome of Kashmir dispute in times to come.
To serve
as a premise for further argument, three important observations need
to be made at this point. One that the Indian establishment has almost
frankly demonstrated now a deep seated malaise regarding the Kashmir
issue. Walking away from
that old and bold crown-of-the-head rhetoric, the Kashmir is now being
plainly seen as a gangrene-of-the-limb scenario. This admission is
in itself going to be of immense relevance in the times to come.
Secondly, the image of India as an Asian megalith has also suffered formidable insult from its defiant immediate neighbours recently. In past few months, the Nepal and Bangladesh in a fit of assertiveness have not hesitated to thumb their noses openly at India by aspiring for a warmer hand-shake with China. This is besides the ever-increasing distance between India and its other neighbours who are not enjoying the economic rise of India.
And lastly,
the Nuclear Deal between US and India coupled with
deteriorating US-Pakistan ties on Taliban issue will also affect the
further course of Kashmiri resistance movement in their own queer
ways.
When we say realisation and admission by India of the bitter realities in Kashmir, we automatically stand up to accept the inevitability of separation. The fact is that the earlier rigid stance and faked confidence has been replaced to a large extent by a strong feeling of disillusionment and surrender. Under such circumstances, India would agree to let go even tomorrow but for that handful of internal and international compulsions faced by it.
India's
problem is two-fold. On one side are the questions of strategic interest.
The apprehension of losing out to emboldened North Eastern and Naxalite
movements. The fear of a national hue and cry against the nerve-breaking
decision. But it is evident that the most important reservations are
related to external circumstances of India. As has been said earlier,
the India finds the possibility of secession totally adverse to its
regional and
international image as for now. The fear is that with birth of a
China-led power-bloc in Asia, there is every risk that sooner or later
India may find itself completely gheraoed by a chain of increasingly
reluctant nations. As such an independent Kashmir will just complete
the loop that has Pakistan and Afghanistan as one limb and China-Nepal-Myanmar
as the other. After having tested missiles at the behest of Chinese
technology, the Bangladesh can be seen as becoming the knot of this
scary loop around India.
As such, these regional developments torpedo the scarce amount of hard-managed Indian will to go for one-time dispute resolution in wake of the present uprising in Kashmir. Thus the current Indian establishment seems to be pitched against a very tricky situation, making it difficult to handle the crisis faithfully and balance the internal and external compulsions in favour of a useful solution. So it can be said with fair degree of confidence, that unless India reassures its place in the troubled power-equation of South Asia, not much head-way can be expected on the Kashmir issue from its side. And till then it is going to be the same old story of evasion, unrest and deadlock.
Then remains
the question of 123 Agreement and its affect on the
Kashmir issue. It seems in the long-run this deal is perhaps going
to be in favour of Kashmir, although apparently it points otherwise.
By jumping into the arms of America, India has only addressed the
insecurities imposed on it by the ever-rising influence of various
antagonistic powers in the Asian continent. For India it is a way
of dealing with this so called "Evil-Bow" formed by Pakistan-Afghanistan-China-Nepal-Myanmar
and Bangladesh, despite superficial pretensions of friendship with
the later trio. However, after regaining its confidence and veto in
the regional matters, there is every like-hood that India will renounce
its iron-fist policy on the Kashmir issue in favour of long-term gains.
These gainswill be in the form of reduced terrorism threat to India, and lesser defense expenditure, once having redefined its strategic interests and creating a higher level of deterence . Here the argument can not be refuted on the basis of a presumption that a more mighty-India will act with even more rigidity in future. It is because; India has already realized the futility of its integral-part rhetoric and the perils of a forceful military occupation.
In coming years the nations are going to be over-busy in altogether different wars of survival and a powerful India will have a new set of challenges to confront, so as to affect the course of all existent problem-phenomena, including the Kashmir issue.
In midst
of all this fury, special mention of Pakistan needs to be made. The
way things are shaping up, it seems Pakistan may soon solemnize its
marriage to China by gradually coming out of the American charm. Under
present conditions of a US-centric world order , it will cause an
added disadvantage to a China-backed Pakistan by passing on the reins
of Kashmir issue further
into the hands of a US-aided India. That means the negotiability of
Kashmir dispute may in future reduce to a differently bilateral
India-Kashmir domain to sheer disappointment of Pakistan. If that
happens ever, the chances of an Independent Kashmir will increase
as much as scuttling the hope of a Kashmir that cedes to Pakistan.
In times
to come there is going to be a lot of churning and shaking
and Kashmir issue will increasingly get connected to movements on
the global platform. Although no one can risk his money on betting
for an early conflict resolution, the way nations are experimenting
with newer power equations day in and day out, it can easily be fathomed
out that the days of conflict are numbered.
Shah Faisal
Freelance Columnist
Srinagar-190001
