Global
Warming Floods
Threaten 4million Britons
By Paul Brown
22 April, 2004
The Guardian
Risks
of flooding are growing to "unacceptable levels" because of
climate change with up to 4 million Britons facing the prospect of their
homes being inundated, according to a report to be published today by
the government.
The report by the Office of Science and Technology gives the most chilling
picture yet of how global warming will affect the lives of millions
of Britons over the next half century.
Compiled by 60 experts
under the leadership of the government's chief scientist Sir David King,
it shows that many towns in Britain are threatened by rising sea levels,
river flooding and the overwhelming of Victorian drains by flash floods.
The report, Future
Flooding, looks forward to 2080 but says that the threat is already
growing and most of the worst of its predictions will have happened
by 2050.
As a result it is
vital to start planning new defences and making long-term decisions
now to prevent future disasters. Sir David warned earlier this year
that global warming was a greater threat than terrorism.
New "green
corridors" need to be created in cities as "safety valves"
into which floodwater can be channelled, the report says. In some cases
abandonment of parts of urban areas, with councils buying up properties
to create new open areas to take flood water, will be necessary.
"Some structures
such as oil refineries could be relocated [inland]. However, other assets
such as coastal towns will be difficult to relocate.
"In Wales and
other parts of the UK, erosion could threaten beaches and therefore
tourism."
The report puts
a question mark over John Prescott's cherished plans to develop the
Thames Gateway with 90,000 new homes, and the whole area east of London
which is at or below sea level.
The report says
that in all planning flood risks must be taken into account. Space must
always be left to allow for river and coastal floodwaters. In the Netherlands
some developments are allowed if they are on stilts and have an escape
boat.
The report is the
most comprehensive undertaken into the risks of flooding in the UK,
and probably the world, Sir David says, and shows that properties will
become uninsurable and many can expect at least a one-in-10 chance of
being flooded every year.
Towns on the east
coast which suffered in the floods of 1953 are in the area of highest
risk, but the danger to Britain's older cities with Victorian sewerage
systems is a newer problem. Drains are in danger of being overwhelmed,
spilling water and sewage into homes, as well as being knocked out for
weeks at a time - as happened in recent floods in central Europe.
The government has
prepared an extensive response to the report pointing out that the Environment
Agency is already looking at a replacement for the Thames Barrier, which
is likely to be overwhelmed sometime after 2030. Higher sea walls along
the embankment into London will also be needed.
But the government
will point out that there is no legal obligation to defend property
or land at all. "The aim is to reduce the risk of flooding or coastal
erosion where it is sustainable to do so and where the proposed defence
is economically, technically and environmentally sound."