Iraq War

Peak Oil

Climate Change

US Imperialism

Palestine

Communalism

Gender/Feminism

Dalit/Adivasi

Globalisation

Humanrights

Economy

India-pak

Kashmir

Environment

Gujarat Pogrom

WSF In India

Arts/Culture

India Elections

Archives

Links

Submit Articles

Contact Us

Fill out your
e-mail address
to receive our newsletter!
 

Subscribe

Unsubscribe

 

Sorry, Wrong Number: Venkaiah Naidu And The 247-Year Hitch

By Shankar Raghuraman

11 September, 2004
Times Of India

BJP president Venkaiah Naidu says the differential growth rates for Hindu and Muslim populations in India are a matter of "grave concern" for those bothered about the country's unity and integrity. The "imbalance", he suggests, raises "serious questions of a long-term nature" when seen in conjunction with the phenomenon of Bangladeshi infiltrators. To most normal people, pseudo-secular as they are, it does not automatically follow that if Muslims grow faster than Hindus national unity is imperilled or that more Indian Muslims being born is akin to infiltration from across the eastern borders. But, then, such connections are not only obvious but axiomatic to those bred on the sangh parivar's ideology, particularly on its cruder manifestations.

The paranoia that Hindus will one day be reduced to a minority in India is neither new nor exclusive to Naidu. It is as old as his ideological fraternity and as widely shared. It is time perhaps to offer them some statistical comfort. After making the necessary adjustments to the Census data on religious groups released a few days ago, it turns out that the Muslim population has grown by 29.3 per cent over the last decade, while the Hindu population has grown by 19.9 per cent.

Guess how long it would take, if these growth rates were maintained, for Muslims to outnumber Hindus in India. It's not a matter of a few years or even a few decades. We would have to wait till the 2251 Census for that to happen. That's about 247 years from where we are located in time. Naidu can, therefore, exit panic mode. In fact, he can do even better. He can start celebrating. For, if Indian Hindus and Muslims continued to grow at the current rates till the year 2251, their combined population by that date would be about 158 billion. Since that's about 30 times the current population of planet Earth, we would then unquestionably rule the world, which is by all accounts unlikely to come even close to matching such growth over two and a half centuries.

If Naidu does need some impending demographic imbalance to worry about, there is a more proximate candidate available. The Sikh population in Punjab grew by 14.3 per cent between 1991 and 2001; the Hindu population of the state grew by 28.7 per cent over the same period. In 2001, Sikhs constituted just under 60 per cent of the state's population while Hindus constituted about 37 per cent. If both groups maintain their current growth rates, Punjab will have as many Hindus as Sikhs by 2041, just about 37 years from now. Isn't it interesting that this particular demographic shift does not seem to bother Naidu or his partymen? Perhaps while all demographic shifts are equal, some are more equal than others.

Has the BJP noticed that neither the Akalis nor anyone else in Punjab is getting worked up about demographic
"imbalances" or perceiving them as threats to Punjab's unity? If they have, they might ask themselves why this is the case. Could it be that unlike Naidu the average Punjabi, Sikh or otherwise, recognises that numbers do not make communities more or less powerful? If the BJP were to bother to study history it could reach that conclusion on its own. The upper castes have dominated Indian society, politics, industry... not because they outnumber the rest. But, of course, the sangh parivar is not much of a votary for studying history. Itbelieves that making up your own history as you go along is a rather more rewarding occupation, apart from being more creatively satisfying.

But it could still look at the very demographic trends it is so concerned about. If it is really true that having larger numbers is an advantage, why is every community moving in the other direction? Why are growth rates coming down, not going up? Even more importantly, it is surely no coincidence that as we move up the socio-economic ladder, we find the growth rate coming down. Thus, the more developed states tend to have lower growth rates, communities with smaller numbers of the socio-economically deprived again have lower growth rates than those that have few people among the privileged.

There may be temporary movements away from this trend, but the long-term progress towards lower growth rates is secular and across the religious spectrum. If Naidu feels this trend needs to be accelerated, there are simpler ways of achieving the goal than striving for a uniform growth rate across communities.

Kerala has some pointers to offer on this score. The prescription is obvious — raise literacy, particularly female literacy, enhance economic growth and distributive justice, make basic health facilities accessible to all. Population stabilisation will follow, not because the state mandates it as a goal, but because it becomes rational for indivi-duals to optimise the size of their families.

>From the BJP's point of view, however, there is a serious problem with this pres-cription. It might settle the demographic problem that the party is so worked up about, but it will also in the process leave no room for a paranoia that has served its political cause rather well for decades.

That is a problem, of course, but luckily for the rest of us, it is one that the sangh parivar has to confront, not one that affects pseudo-secular Indians like us. It certainly isn't one that threatens the country's unity and integrity or pose serious questions of a long-term nature that would have us losing our sleep over them. Sorry Naidu, you're on your own on this one.



 

Google
WWW www.countercurrents.org

 

 

 

Your Support
Is Absolutely
Necessary
For Our
Survival

Thank You!


 

Search Our Archive



Our Site

Web