Indian Census - After the Xenophobia, The Report Card Of The Communities
By John Dayal
12 December,2004
India Thinkers Net
Last year while reviewing in The Hindu newspaper one of the `research reports' periodically churned out by dubious but government funded Sangh Parivar policy groups, Ashish Bose, arguably the best lying demographer and populations scientist wrote `Census data since 1951 indicate that in every decade, there is an increase of only one per cent point in the Muslim population. If it is 13 per cent in 2001, at this rate, it should take 370 years for India to become Pakistan! I would beg to disagree with Deputy Prime Minister, L.K. Advani, who quotes Augustus Comte, a 19th Century French philosopher, to say "demography is destiny". My footnote is: past trend is not destiny. I am proud of multi-religious India and the rich cultural diversity. Muslims and Christians must have the same place as Hindus
in India. We don't want to be Pakistan.'
India's Register General, or Census Commissioner JK Banthia surely has heard of Bose, and possibly knows him personally, but still chose to rush in where other angels in other censuses had feared to tread - releasing the religious divisions and growth data from the 2001 census. The data's conclusions were themselves skewed, but its timing could well have smacked of, if one were so inclined to believe, of a conspiracy with the Hindutva Parivar.
Almost to the day when the RSS and the Bharatiya Janata party were relaunching their next Hindutva crusade riding Uma Bharati's flag bedecked rath yatra from Karnataka, Banthia told the nation that Muslims were growing at an exorbitant rate, almost fifty per cent faster that the poor Hindus.
It took sharp reporters, and a national uproar, for Banthia to beat a hasty retreat behind some more statistics and come with revised figures and an apology - he had missed out non Kashmir and Assam, which had been included in the 2001 census but not in earlier census, and therefore had come up with a wrong figure.
The damage had however been done. By the same night, a thousand RSS websites were screaming that Hindus would be submerged and lose their majority in as much as ten years. The Shiv Sena announced awards for Hindu women who would breed fast, reminding people of the Mother Heroines who used tong et the Red Star from Stalin for having broods in excess of ten children.
The political lout and still BJP president Venkiah Naidu formally expressed his party's deep concern at the demographic sabotage of Bharatvarsha's purity. Even the Congress, much of it still soft Hindutva what with the Savarkar controversy embarrassing it on the eve of the Assembly elections in Maharashtra, felt itself pushed to the back foot. It chose silence when it should have come out with a categorical declaration that the idea of India did not depend on the relative percentage of different relgions in its population, but on the fact that all relgions co existed in a healthy, plural society now finally seeking its place in the global sun.
I differ with people who say that such detailed statistics should not be revealed for it excites passions. Statistics, as Nehru realized when he gave the go ahead for the Five-year plans and urged Mahalanobis and others to reduce India's complexity to manageable, and understandable data, are the backbone of economics and development procedures. Communities, without bothering if they are being overtaken by others or not, can use statistical data to make course corrections or to understand what has happened to them for their own mistakes -- the Parsis are diminsiing fast because of a
racist ban on absorbing children born to mixed marriages, and Muslim education still remains a dream for most Muslim women because of a hidebound patriarchal society which forgets that Islam gives women such a high place in its scheme of things.The church in India, notorious for fighting shy of data less it expose nits own shortcomings and shortsightedness, has always refused, actively or passively, even collecting data on unemployment of Dalits, which could have helped them get some small benefits from the government. The data for Christians as thrown up by this census should open the eyes of the church.
First the Good News; After almost fifty years, the decadal decline in the growth of the Christian community in India has been stemmed, or stopped. But just about. From 21.5 per cent in the past decade to 22.6 per cent. Celebrations may please be held back. Later, as the data shows, there is much reason for concern, much cause for tears.
But to come back to the raw, overall, and corrected data from the 2001 census as finally published in the official records: The revised figures released by the census commissioner last Thursday - four days after the controversy erupted - leaving out Jammu and Kashmir, and Assam from all census figures since 1971
The initial report suggested while the growth rate for Hindus has fallenbetween 1991 and 2001 compared with 1981-91, Muslims have actually grown faster in the last decade. The truth was that both Hindus and Muslims have seen a significant fall in population growth rates. The false impression about a rising Muslim growth rate is created because the 1991 census did not include Jammu & Kashmir, the only Muslim majority state, while the 2001 census does include J&K. Adjusted for this and the Muslim growth rate plunged from 36 per cent to 29.3 per cent, while that for Hindus is only marginally affected.
Excluding the Muslims of J&K from the 2001 figures, the growth of theMuslim population from 1991 to 2001 was 29.3 per cent, significantly lower than the near 33 per cent growth figure of 1981-91.
The adjusted Hindu growth rate comes to 19.9 per cent. The censusreport is a basic tool for policymakers at all levels.
Not only has Muslim population growth slowed down by 3.5 per cent, it has fallen faster than the Hindu population growth rate which lost 2.9 per cent in the same time.
The more hilarious was the Jain data where the census gave the impression that there has been a sudden explosion in the Jain population over the last decade. It suggests that Jains have grown 26
per cent over the last decade against 4.6 per cent between 1981 and 1991. But the same data shows that the 0 to 6 age group among Jains is barely 10.6 per cent of the total Jain population.The charitable explanation, I think, is that all the Aggarwals and others who were jains but also taken benefit of being Hindus of a particular caste, asserted their identity and told the Census officers they belonged to a minority community. Benefits of Article 30 may have been another factor, if one were to be uncharitable. The fact however remains that the strident Hindutva chant of the BJP had tuned off many caste groups which were allied with the Hindus but have become frightened of losing their identity and are now seeking their own place under the sun.
For the record again, of the total population of 102.8 crore (or 1.028 billion) in the country as at the 2001 Census, the Hindus were 82.7 crore (or 827million) in number and constituted 80.5% of the population of the country. The Muslim population stood at 13.8 crore (or 138 million) comprising of 13.4% of the population. The next in size are the Christians (2.4 crore or 24 million), followed by Sikhs (1.9 crore or 19 million), Buddhists (79 lakh or 7.9 million), Jains (42 lakh or 4.2 million) and those following 'Other' religions and persuasions including the tribal religions, etc. (66 lakh or 6.6 million).
As regards the disparity of the absolute and relative number of male and female population in the society, expressed in terms of sex ratio or number of females per thousand males, the Hindus (931) were slightly below the national average of 933, whereas Muslims returned 936. The sex ratio among the Christian population grew handsomely from 994 in 1991 to 1009 in 2001. Among Sikhs, as was also noted earlier while releasing data on total population in Punjab, the sex ratio was the lowest (893). For the Buddhists and the Jains the sex ratio remained almost the same at 953 and 950.
For the first time as per the religion data released on 2001 Census,it is possible to know about the population in the age group 0 to 6 years among different religious communities. In terms of proportion of children in the age group 0 to 6 years, the country average for all communities combined stood at 15.9%, among Hindus and Muslims the proportions were 15.6% and 18.3% respectively. Proportion of child population (0-6) among the Buddhists was 14.4%. However, the proportion of child population among both Sikh (12.8% and Jains 10.6%) are indication of low fertility, more so among the Jains.
The child sex ratio by religious groups now show wide variation in 2001 Census. The lowest sex ratio among child population (0-6) is found among the Sikhs (786), followed in increasing order among Jains (870), Hindus (925), Muslims (925),Buddhists (942), Christians (964) and Others (976).
Literacy rate for all the religious groups, as revealed again for the first time in 2001 Census, were very encouraging, shattering many myths in circulation earlier when such a dataset was not available for
the country as a whole. The literacy rate among Hindus (65.1%) was slightly better than the national average (64.8%) for all religious groups combined. Among Muslims the literacy rate is 59.1%, below the national average. The highest literacy rate is recorded among the Jains (94.1%), followed by Christians (80.3%), Buddhists (72.7%) and Sikhs (69.4%).To revert to the Christian Data: The average Christian population in India is 2.3 per cent. The North East India traditionally has considerable Christian presence. Nagaland 90; Mizoram 87; Meghalaya 70.3; Manipur 34; Goa 26.7; Andaman 21.7; Kerala 19; Arunachal Pradesh 18.7; Pondicherry 6.9; Sikkim 6.7; Tamil Nadu 6.1; Jharkhand 4.1; Assam 3.7; Tripura 3.2; Dadra & Nagar 2.7; Orissa 2.4; Daman Diu 2.1; Karnataka 1.9; Chattisgarh 1.9; Andhra Pradesh 1.6; Punjab 1.2; Maharashtra 1.1; Lakshwandeep 1; Delhi 0.9; Chandigarh 0.8; Gujarat 0.6; West Bengal 0.6; Madhya Pradesh 0.3; Uttranchal 0.3; Jammu & Kashmir 0.2; Bihar 0.1; Uttar Pradesh 0.1; Rajasthan 0.1; Haryana 0.1; Himachal Pradesh 0.1 Of the total number of Christians: 24 080 016 of which Urban Christians are 8 186 058 while rural Christians are 15 893 958.
The anomalies and virtual images begin right here. The right wing propaganda of a total Christian North east is given the lie by the fact that the small population states of Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram, Chitins are only 34 per cent in Manipur and mere 3.7 per cent in Assam. And what does one say of Christian Karnataka, as it was assumed, the state has a measly 1.9 per cent, much less than the national average. In fact, if it were not for Andhra and Tamil Nadu, which have both the per cent tage and the population, there would be hardly any Christians in India to make a difference. Witness
Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, allegedly home to mass conversions, but with Christian populations of 0.3 per cent and 1.9 percent respectively. It can have only two meanings. Either people are afraid to declare their identity, or the census has cheated. The other inference would be that the so called evangelizations in the trial belt in the last fifty years have been so much myth.More depressing is the data on economic empowerment. Careful analysis of the state wise and even district wise data now available shows hoe dependent the Christian community is on the service sector, or on jobs they do for landlords, workshop owners, or even households. Remember Delhi has over 70,000 Jharkhand women working as maids, and that is just the city. The figures in Punjab, Bengal and others must be astronomical.
The first disaster comes in education. Remember the church claims almost 45,000 to 50,000 educational institutions, many in rural areas. And yet the literacy figures, while much better compared with the Muslims, are woefully deficient in themselves. The female literacy is as low as 44 per cent in Orissa, 48 per cent in Assam, 37 per cent in Arunachal. Elsewhere, it hovers around 70 per cent. What it means is that 30 per cent of all Christian women remain illiterate, and the fixture is much higher in the rural area.
Employment figures are equally dismal. Unlike Muslims, women and young men do not have employment at home or in their own units such as handicrafts or artisanship's. Work participation is inmost areas is below the national average. Barring urban service sectors.
The non-worker population of 14,528,619 consists of 9,224,365 people in cities, with frightening meanings in terms of criminality and wayward you. Of them 8,621990 are females. In the villages, 2038338 males and 3265926 females are listed as without any employment. Pauperized. And most possibly Dalits.
The Church should make a close study of the district wise data. Each disclose and parish, in the catholic church, and the equivalents in other protestant denominations need to chalk out strategies for the development of the community based on the Census data.
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