Scientists Narrow Global Warming Range
By Countercurrents.org
28 May, 2013
Countercurrents.org
Australian scientists have narrowed the predicted range of global warming through groundbreaking new research [1].
The scientists have generated more reliable projections of global warming estimates at 2100. A study-findings, presented in a paper, said exceeding 6 degrees warming was now unlikely while exceeding 2 degrees is very likely for business-as-usual emissions.
The paper, led by Dr Roger Bodman, Postgraduate Research Fellow at Victoria University's Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, with Professors David Karoly and Peter Rayner from the University of Melbourne's School of Earth Sciences and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science has been published in Nature Climate Change on May 27, 2013.
The finding was achieved through a new method combining observations of carbon dioxide and global temperature variations with simple climate model simulations to project future global warming.
Dr Bodman said while continuing to narrow the range even further was possible, significant uncertainty in warming predictions would always remain due to the complexity of climate change drivers. "This study ultimately shows why waiting for certainty will fail as a strategy," he said. "Some uncertainty will always remain, meaning that we need to manage the risks of warming with the knowledge we have."
The study found 63% of uncertainty in projected warming was due to single sources – such as climate sensitivity, followed by future behavior of the carbon cycle and the cooling effect of aerosols – while 37% of uncertainty came from the combination of these sources.
"This means that if any single uncertainty is reduced – even the most important, climate sensitivity – significant uncertainty will remain," Dr Bodman said.
Professor Karoly said the study reinforced the importance of strong action on climate change.
"Our results reconfirm the need for urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to avoid exceeding the global warming target of 2 degrees needed to minimize dangerous climate change," he said.
Source:
[1] Phys.org, May 27, 2013, “Scientists narrow global warming range”, http://phys.org/news/2013-05-scientists-narrow-global-range.html
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