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Two Billion People Threatened By Worsening Water Scarcity Due To Climate Crisis

By Countercurrents.org 

26 September 2013
Countercurrents.org

Less rain and more evaporation in many parts of the world due to climate crisis could worsen water scarcity situation, finds a new study led by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact and Research. The study findings have been published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

According to the researchers' calculations, global warming will expose 668 million people worldwide to new or aggravated water scarcity, which is in addition to the 1.3 billion people already living in water-scarce regions. Regions which will see the most significant deterioration in water supplies are the Middle East, North Africa, southern Europe and the south-west of the US .

The study looks at present commitments by countries to reduce GHGs.

It says that even if these commitments or pledges are met, the global mean temperature will still rise by around 3.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

The study used data from 19 climate change models. This was run alongside eight global warming trajectories. In total, more than 150 climate change scenarios were examined in the study.

Researchers also examined the impact future changes in climate would have on the world's ecosystems, seeking to identify which areas would be subject to greatest change and whether these regions were rich in biodiversity.

The study finds that if the global mean temperature rises by only 2°C, at present the internationally agreed target maximum, an additional 486 million people – a figure equivalent to more than 7 percent of the world's present population – will be threatened with severe water scarcity.

According to Dr. Dieter Gerten, the study's lead author, the main factor leading to more water shortages will be declining precipitation: increasing temperatures will also lead to greater evapotranspiration – the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration from the Earth's land surface to the atmosphere.

“Even if the increase is restricted to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, many regions will have to adapt their water management and demand to a lower supply, especially since the population is expected to grow significantly in many of these regions”, says Gerten.

The study says: It's vital that governments and policymakers, when setting targets on temperature rises, are fully informed of the overall consequences of their decisions.

“The unequal spatial pattern of exposure to climate change impacts sheds interesting light on the responsibility of high-emission countries and could have a bearing on both mitigation and adaption burden-sharing”, says Gerten.

“At a global warming of 2°C, notable ecosystem restructuring is likely for regions such as the tundra and some semi-arid regions,” says Gerten.

“At global warming levels beyond 3°C, the area affected by significant ecosystem transformation would significantly increase and encroach into biodiversity-rich regions.

“Beyond a mean global warming of 4°C, we show with high confidence that biodiversity hotspots such as parts of the Amazon will be affected.”

* This report is based on an article by Kieran Cooke , co-editor for Climate News Network, a news service led by four veteran British environmental reporters and broadcasters. It delivers news and commentary about climate change for free to media outlets worldwide.

 

 



 

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