2013 Could Be One Of The Warmest Years
By Countercurrents.org
22 December 2012
Countercurrents.org
How will by the days and nights of 2013? Scientists have an answer. The year will be one of the warmest years on record. In its annual forecast for the coming year, the Met Office predicts that globally, 2013 will be 0.57C above long-term average
A Reuters/guardian.co.uk report [1] said:
Global temperatures are forecast to be 0.57C above the long-term average next year, making 2013 one of the warmest years on record, the Met Office said on December 20, 2012 .
"It is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest 10 years in the record which goes back to 1850, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012," it said in its annual forecast for the coming year.
Next year was expected to be between 0.43 and 0.71C warmer than the long-term global average of 14 degrees (1961-1990), with a best estimate of around 0.57C, it said.
Its forecast is based on its own research as well as data from the University of East Anglia , the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Rising temperatures could be due to the natural variability of the climate and global warming from increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Dave Britton, Met Office forecaster, told Reuters.
A warmer global average temperature does not necessarily mean every region of the world will get hotter, as regional climate variability produces different effects in different parts of the world, he added.
Eleven of the 12 hottest years on record have occurred since 2001, according to data from the World Meteorological Organisation.
Most scientists blame increasing temperatures on man-made GHG emissions from burning fossil fuels and say they can lead to rising sea levels and extreme weather events. Global carbon dioxide emissions hit a record high in 2011, led by China , the International Energy Agency said in May.
Last week, a leaked draft report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed global average temperatures could be more than 2C above average by 2100 and may reach 4.8C.
The UK Met Office in its annual global temperature forecast said [2]:
2013 is expected to be between 0.43 °C and 0.71 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C.
Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast and observations, it is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest ten years in the record which goes back to 1850, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012.
The prediction follows provisional figures for the observed temperature in 2012, published by the Met Office and University of East Anglia last month. These showed that global average temperatures in 2012 were 0.45 °C above the long term average based on data from the three international global temperature datasets used by the World Meteorological Organization.
2012 is currently ranked the 9th warmest year on record. The global average temperature for 2012 falls well within the range predicted by the Met Office for 2012 of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, with a most likely value of 0.48 °C above the long term average. This is consistent with the Met Office forecast statement that 2012 was expected to be warmer than 2011, but not as warm as the record year of 2010.
The table below provides the top 12 rankings for the World Meteorological Organisation data set. 2012 includes Jan to Oct 2012:
Rank |
Year |
WMO Global Temperature Anomaly * |
1 |
2010 |
0.54 |
2 |
2005 |
0.54 |
3 |
1998 |
0.51 |
4 |
2007 |
0.49 |
5 |
2003 |
0.49 |
6 |
2002 |
0.49 |
7 |
2009 |
0.48 |
8 |
2006 |
0.48 |
9 |
2012 |
0.45 |
10 |
2004 |
0.43 |
11 |
2001 |
0.43 |
12 |
2011 |
0.42 |
* Anomaly: °C above long-term average of 14.0 °C.
Source
[1] “Met Office says 2013 likely to be one of warmest years on record”, Dec. 21, 2012 , http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/21/met-office-2013-warmest-years
[2] ( UK ) Met Office, “Met Office 2013 annual global temperature forecast”, Dec. 20, 2012 , http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/2013-global-forecast
Comments are moderated
