India Faces
A Severe Drought
By Radha Viswanath
03 August, 2004
Asia Tribune
All
hopes of a normal or near normal rainfall have receded. With barely
a month to go before the monsoon takes its formal bow, as many as 28
of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in India have recorded 'below
average'rainfall and the nation is staring straight into a drought year.
Weathermen, who
have been talking of a possible monsoon revival in different parts of
the country, have stopped holding out such a hope. For, even if some
of the 276 (out of a total of 524) districts in the country, where precipitation
was deficient or scanty till now, receive good rainfall in the coming
weeks, it will be of little help to the farming community. For the agriculturists,
the kharif crop is as good as lost. In fact, there is a view in the
agriculture ministry that drought 2004 could be worse than what the
country experienced two years ago.
This is bad news
for the Manmohan Singh government, which assumed office less than three
months back. Drought now would mean that the targets set for various
sectors of the economy in the budget presented by Finance Minister P
Chidambaram in the first half of July would not be achieved. The projected
GDP growth will not happen and employment generation would suffer. GDP
growth, projected at over seven per cent in the 2004-05 budget, may
not even touch six per cent. Worse, the depleted purchasing power of
farmers and rural artisans is not good news for the corporate world.
For, the strong agriculture growth orientation of the first UPA government
budget had raised hopes of increased rural demand for white goods.
In most parts of
the country, farmers have lost the seed they planted to deficient rainfall.
This means that even in the unlikely event of the monsoon reviving to
near normal levels in the coming weeks, the damage done to crops cannot
be reversed. This prospect has made agricultural experts espouse the
creation of seed, feed and fodder reserves as a buffer stock. They recommend
that the government write off the kharif season and start preparations
to make gains in the rabi season to offset the crop loss now.
The Congress-led
UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government has paid heed to expert
advice and has launched action to mitigate human suffering on account
of drought. Expert teams are being readied to visit various regions
where rainfall has been deficient to assess the situation and make plans
to provide timely and adequate relief to the affected population. Emphasis
is also on minimizing
deaths of livestock. With its long experience in managing drought in
certain pockets of the country even during "good" monsoon
years, there is a well-oiled machinery to cope with the situation.
However, the job
on hand - particularly with regard to providing drinking water - is
bound to prove ticklish for the authorities, given the sinking levels
of ground water in most parts of the country. It is in this context
that a proposal to establish a National Water Mission is receiving active
consideration from the government. The Mission is expected to take an
integrated look at the problem and chalk out coordinated strategies
to ensure that there is equitable distribution of this scarce natural
resource.