Devastation
Linked To Global Warming
By Gaby Hinsliff
and Robin McKie
12 September, 2004
The Observer
Scientists
are claiming that the unprecedented ferocity and frequency of the hurricanes
that have battered the Caribbean this year can be blamed on one factor:
the unexpectedly warm water that has been building up in the Atlantic
over the past year.
But some leading
US meteorologists reject the idea that this heating is in turn directly
linked to global warming. The real villain is the great ocean conveyor
belt that ferries warm water from the Equator to the poles, they say.
Man-made climate change is a peripheral issue.
Every two or three
decades, the conveyor belt picks up speed, scientists have discovered,
and in doing so warms tropical waters. In turn, this heating alters
atmospheric conditions around Africa, the origin of many major storm
fronts. Greater storms are created and more make it to hurricane force.
According to Eric
Blake of the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, sea surface temperatures
are now 5C higher than recent averages and these have been directly
responsible for spawning Hurricanes Ivan, Frances and Charley this summer.
The end result has
been devastation. This is the first time in history that one season
has produced two storms that have caused more than $1 billion in damage.
Combined, Charley and Frances have resulted in insurance claims of more
than $20bn. Ivan is likely to match this.
The meteorologists
say there is more to come. The warming of the Atlantic that began last
year is likely to linger for a couple of decades, creating large numbers
of hurricanes.
This idea is backed by historical analysis which has shown that from
the Forties to the early Sixties, hurricanes were relatively commonplace
in the Caribbean. Then came relative tranquillity, when much of Florida's
coastal population took up residence in the state. Now they face a return
to the bad old days of tropical storms.
The images of Hurricane
Ivan sweeping over Jamaica have added yet another image of climatic
devastation in recent months. Although not directly linked to global
warming, they have - along with pictures of wrecked harvests and summer
deluges - intensified popular concerns about the climate. These fears
will be directly tackled by Michael Howard this week when he gives a
speech in which he will demand that Americans co-operate more closely
on efforts to cut greenhouse gases. Howard will argue that the Prime
Minister has failed to capitalise on his relationship with the White
House by getting George Bush to sign the Kyoto pact.
'Like the war on
terrorism or the drive for responsible free trade, climate change is
an international issue that depends on international co-operation,'
Howard will say. 'No one can opt out of the fight against global warming.
That means persuading the Americans to join the battle against climate
change.'
At the same time
Tony Blair will make his own speech on global warming but will not directly
criticise President Bush. However, he will not shy away from pointing
out his well-known disagreement with the White House over global warming.
'It's obvious when it comes to issues like climate change that there
are differences,' said a Downing Street source.
Blair has been repeatedly
urged by ministers to make more of his differences with Bush to show
voters he is capable of standing up to the Republican right on issues
of principle. However, he has less room for manoeuvre than Howard, who
has already burnt his bridges with the White House after a public spat
prompted by the Bush administration's refusal to grant him photo opportunities
with the President.