Russia
All Set To Back Kyoto
By Geoffrey Lean
23 May 2004
The Independent
President George Bush's bid to stop international
action to combat global warming faces failure this weekend, as he is
left more isolated than ever before both at home and abroad.
Russia's President
Vladimir Putin - who will effectively decide whether the Kyoto Protocol
stands or falls - announced on Friday that his country would "rapidly
move towards ratification" in the wake of a complex deal with the
European Union.
One British source
close to negotiating the deal said yesterday that the announcement was
"more than I had dared to hope". Another said he thought it
increased the likelihood of the treaty coming into effect "from
less that 50 per cent to about 90 per cent".
Mr Bush is also
coming under increasing pressure at home from industry, Congress and
Republican governors. The Senate, unanimously opposed to the Kyoto Protocol
seven years ago, is expected to pass a resolution backing strong action
on global warming next year, whoever wins the US presidential election.
Mr Putin's announcement,
by far the strongest statement of support for the treaty that he has
yet made, immediately followed the EU's agreement, at a Moscow summit,
to drop objections to Russia joining the World Trade Organisation.
Under the protocol's
complex terms, Russia's support is all that is needed to bring it into
effect. But over recent months, President Putin has been predicted to
reject it, dooming it to failure.
Mr Putin's economic
adviser, Andrei Illarionov, has been increasingly strident in his condemnations;
he described it last month as an "economic Auschwitz".
Last week, a report
by experts from the Russian Academy of Sciences, led by Professor Yuri
Israel, another prominent critic, told the President that ratifying
the treaty would damage the country's economy. And on the eve of the
summit senior Russian government sources were insisting that Kyoto would
not be on the agenda.
Yet, almost unnoticed,
Mr Putin has been inching in the opposite direction. In a meeting with
Romano Prodi, the President of the European Commission, last month,
he privately distanced himself from Mr Illarionov. In another, with
the Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, he discreetly intimated
that Russia might soon endorse the treaty.
Concern about the
US's policies in Iraq has played a part in the shift, as has a desire
for warmer relations with the EU, now Russia's neighbour following the
accession of Eastern European countries this month. But the crucial
factor has been gas prices. Russians pay only a fifth as much for the
fuel as its overseas customers; until now the EU has insisted that prices
must be equalised, at the risk of severe damage to the economy, if Russia
is to be allowed to join the WTO.
Friday's deal, brokered
by the EU trade commissioner, Pascal Lamy, will let Russia join the
organisation so long as it doubles the domestic price. Mr Putin, who
has been using Kyoto as a bargaining counter, can present this at home
as an important political victory. It will also provide a boost to the
growing support in the US for action on global warming. Opinion polls
show that 70-80 per cent of Americans want their government to take
the lead on combating climate change.
Surprisingly, Mr
Bush is under pressure from the industry responsible for much of the
pollution: electric power companies owning nearly two-fifths of US generating
capacity have endorsed legislation that would compulsorily limit their
emissions of carbon dioxide, the main global-warming gas. There are
even indications that ExxonMobil, the main industry cheerleader for
the President's position, is beginning to change its stance.
Three key Republican-governed
states - California, New York and Massachusetts - have parted company
with the President and moved to take aggressive measures to reduce emissions.
Both houses of Congress have called on the Bush administration to return
to the negotiating table.
The US will not
join Kyoto as it stands. But a deal looks more possible this weekend
than at any time since Mr Bush took office.
© 2004 Independent
Digital (UK) Ltd