Kyoto - A Crucial
First Step
By Tony Juniper
17 February, 2005
The
Guardian
The
Kyoto protocol represents not only a great victory for environmental
campaigners who have fought for more than a decade to highlight the
threat posed by climate change; it is a victory for everyone who has
an interest in human quality of life.
The very fact that
141 countries from around the world have reached a common understanding
of the threat posed by climate change, and have agreed to work together
to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions shows that international cooperation
is possible and can lead to progress.
As the governments
involved in the Kyoto negotiations know, it was no easy victory. There
are a vast range of powerful players who do not see it as in their interests
to recognise, let alone tackle climate change.
The obstructive
stance of the Bush administration did not help. The corporate powers
that profit from our fossil fuel economy, such as ExxonMobil, have tried
to undermine the Kyoto Protocol at every opportunity, funding research
intended to discredit the science of climate change and attempting to
create dissent where consensus was required.
So today is a great
victory. But it is only the first battle in the war against climate
change, because the commitments made by governments under Kyoto do not
go anywhere near far enough.
The international
climate change task force made it clear just last week that we might
have just 10 years in which to stabilise and start reducing emission
levels. The UK government's chief scientific advisor, Sir David King,
has highlighted the fact that we need to be moving towards reducing
global emissions by 80%, rather than the Kyoto provision for a 5% reduction.
Climate change poses a threat to life as we know it, in the UK and around
the world. A global rise in temperature of just 2C will threaten tens
of millions of people with increased risk of hunger and greater vulnerability
to disease, including malaria. Millions will find their homes and land
at risk from flooding, while billions will face increased water shortages.
To tackle this threat
with confidence we need to build a strong global understanding and act
together. The European Union has an essential role to play in leading
global action, and if it is to carry out that role effectively it must
remain strong, rather than pandering to the position of the Bush administration
and its corporate backers.
George Bush's rejection
of Kyoto is of course lamentable. But the United States will eventually
come on board. They will have no choice. There is already some interest
within the US business community and states such as California are taking
important steps.
As the advantages
of new technologies become apparent, not just for the environment, but
also for jobs, exports and development, the US will want to be part
of the new economy. Cutting carbon dioxide emissions is not just good
for the environment; it makes long term business sense.
Indeed, the Kyoto
protocol sends a powerful message to board rooms and the global market
that tackling climate change is a priority and that ignoring the problem
will inevitably bear financial costs.
In the short term,
moving to cleaner sources of energy has a price, but our current dependence
on dirty fossil fuels such as oil and coal cannot be sustained. The
costs of new energy compared to the costs of climate change are a small
price to pay, as insurance industry figures make clear.
Kyoto has also put
climate change firmly on the political agenda, raising public understanding
of the issues at stake. Reaching political agreement on taking action
is no easy task, and democratic governments need a public mandate to
act.
Tony Blair has already
indicated his intention to put climate change on the agenda for the
G8 this year. More importantly, he must also make use of his role as
president of the EU. This year is crucial, with the first international
climate negotiations taking place in November to discuss what happens
after Kyoto.
Intense efforts
are needed to maintain the political momentum and find a way forward
that works for rapidly developing economies, such as China and India,
who must be brought on board. Finding a way forward will not be easy,
but progess is essential and the stakes are high.
· Tony Juniper
is executive director of Friends of the Earth