Iraqis Discuss
Voting, Or Not,
In Elections Held Amidst Chaos
By Dahr Jamail
and Brian Dominick
24 January, 2005
The
NewStandard
Baghdad , Jan
17 - Despite the continuing escalation of violence here, Iraqi officials
insist the countrys first-ever general assembly elections remain
on schedule, even if preparations have fallen well off track in many
areas where rebels have caused grave disruptions. While most Iraqis
are consumed with the ever-present tasks of keeping their families safe,
finding fuel for their cars and looking for jobs, there is much talk
around Baghdad of the polls set for January 30.
On Election Day,
among eligible Iraqis who do not cast ballots, it will be hard to differentiate
between those holding off for any of various reasons. There are many
who will simply be too afraid to go to their local polling places. Others
will observe organized calls to boycott the elections in an attempt
to withhold legitimacy from the process. And then there are still more
who are just plain disgusted with the system, how it has been organized
and what they see as an utter lack of legitimacy in even a best-case
outcome.
A growing minority
among Sunnis is responding with violence, but the great majority seems
to have resigned to helplessness, trusting in neither the gun nor the
ballot.
But today, throughout the Baghdad area, there are plenty of Iraqis willing
to express why they will or will not be voting later this month.
"If the US
wants, we will have elections," said Aimin, a 43-year-old owner
of an internet café in a predominantly Sunni area of Baghdad,
"because they are planning on installing a pro-US government that
will not oppose any of their policies."
There have been
numerous calls for a postponement or outright boycott of the polls.
Mostly from a range of Sunni Arab groups that fear utter disenfranchisement
as a minority, the call has been echoed even by a prominent mainstream
Sunni political figure, Adnan Pachachi, whose own party is engaged in
the campaign.
Especially among
the Sunnis of Iraqs populous central region, the sense for some
people that their country is going somewhere without them is everywhere,
and the desperation that accompanies such a shift is manifesting itself
in different ways for different people. A growing minority is responding
with violence, while the great majority seems to have resigned to helplessness,
trusting in neither the gun nor the ballot.
But according to
the US-imposed interim Iraqi Constitution, the ball is rolling down
the path to Iraqi "democracy," and nothing can stop it. The
elections must occur before the end of this month. Nearly everyone agrees
that, according to the letter of the law, the Independent Commission
for Elections in Iraq is not qualified to call the polls off or even
to postpone them; neither are the Iraqi or United States governments.
Yet some Iraqis
dispute the practical authority of the year-old document, insisting
that bending rules is what "the Americans" do best. If the
US-led coalition can overthrow a sovereign government in Iraq and the
United Nations can rubber stamp that process, they argue, surely either
Washington or the UN can alter temporary rules established to permanently
replace that regime with a new one.
Some also say that
if Iraq is truly sovereign in the wake of last summers much ballyhooed
"handing over," the interim government could step up and admit
the process is too flawed to go forward under the current conditions
of chaotic insecurity. But such a move would surely open Prime Minister
Allawi and his government up to the opposite criticism: that they are
resistant to relinquish the positions they have gained through undemocratic
means. Besides, many of those currently in power are situated to obtain
seats in the next phase of Iraqi political history.
"We are not
against elections," said Saif, an 18-year-old Shiite biology student
at Baghdad University, "but we are against the timing of them.
Look at the security," he exclaimed.
Asked if he expected
to vote, Saif promptly responded: "Even though the elections will
happen, they will not be legitimate, and they will be a disaster. Anybody
elected will be a puppet of Bush." He then concluded, "I will
not vote, nor will anyone I know."
Charges that the
United States has unduly influenced the elections are fairly standard
in Baghdad. Since many of the best-known candidates have worked directly
with Washington since long before the March 2003 invasion, or with occupying
forces thereafter, Iraqis look upon them with deep-rooted skepticism.
US-funded nonprofit organizations have been heavily involved in the
development of political parties, and there is widespread suspicion
that back room arrangements have been put in place for months now.
Aimin, the internet
café owner, said that the way the elections are being handled
is grounds for consternation, reflecting widespread fear that even those
votes which are cast could be tampered with.
Indeed, the only
international "observers" scheduled to assess the fairness
of the polls two weeks from now will be operating out of Amman, Jordan,
according to UN and European Union plans. Those groups mission
is to ensure that the Iraqi vote lives up to "international standards,"
as the head of the UNs small mission put it last November. How
they will live up to that mandate from such a remote location remains
to be seen.
Direct observation
of the elections themselves -- which will be held across some 5,000
to 9,000 polling places if the Independent Commissions plans come
to fruition -- will be monitored by Iraqis hastily trained and retrained
by international organizations, including American partisans funded
by US tax dollars. The number of polling places changes based on which
official is consulted on what day, and their locations are being kept
secret until Election Day, reportedly in order to discourage planned
attacks.
"All of my
friends are criticizing the elections and everyone involved with them,"
Aimin added sternly, echoing a sense in some areas that what could be
considered "apathy" is actually rooted in beliefs held by
large parts of entire communities. "I will not be voting,"
Aimin concluded.
But not everyone
shares Aimins pessimism. "There will be legitimate elections
because everyone nominated will bring Iraq to peace," said Alia
Khalaf, a 24-year-old biologist who is looking forward to the elections.
"I will be voting for [current Prime Minister Iyad] Allawi,"
he added.
What Khalaf, a Shiite,
actually meant is that he will be voting for the list of 240 candidates
of which Allawi is a leading figure. Though some individuals are running
independently, most candidates only come in sets, which is one of the
factors leading to tremendous confusion and frustration among even those
who are committed to voting at months end.
Again depending
which authority one asks, political parties, coalition slates and independent
candidates, have fielded somewhere between 83 and 256 slates. In many
cases, the names of candidates have been withheld for fear of retribution
by rebel groups intent on ruining the election altogether. Each list
reportedly contains the names -- or the "anonymous" placeholders
-- of up to 275 candidates.
Among those names
that are made public, Iraqis struggle to recognize anyone they can put
their support behind. With over 5,000 candidates listed, anonymously
or by name, and no one running as a representative of a particular locale,
the task of deciding whom to back is too much for some. Many Iraqis
say they cannot even figure out the differences between the platforms
set forth by various political groupings.
"I have seen
the lists, and I dont know any of them," said Mustafa, a
20-year-old physics student at Baghdad University. "I dont
know if Ill vote yet because we dont know any of these people.
I cant vote for someone I dont know."
Because a form of
proportional representation will be used to select how many members
of the most popular slates will earn seats on the 275-member National
Assembly, even for those Iraqis who find agreeable candidates on winning
slates, there is no guarantee that their favored politicians will ever
hold office.
A 52-year-old tailor
in Baghdad, Ibrahim Aziz, shared his aggravation concerning the chaotic
electoral process. "Up until now we, I dont know anything
concerning the elections," he said while mending some suit pants
in his small shop. "Even the government doesnt know who is
nominated. We dont know these lists with no names on them."
"If there are
to be true elections there must be names of people we would be voting
for," added Ahmed, a customer at Azizs tailor shop.
For its part, the
Independent Commission tasked with orchestrating the elections from
start to finish, has offered little sympathy for those voters and candidates
alike who feel excluded from the process for any reason.
Asked during an
interview with the United Nations IRIN news service what the Commission
planned to do to help Iraqis learn more about the numerous options on
the ballot, spokesperson Farid Ayar responded: "Since 15 December
last year parties have been able to promote themselves. If they haven't
done it yet, it's not our problem, we don't want to involve ourselves
in this issue and add problems to ours."
Ayar also dismissed
the significance of reports from Iraqs Interior Ministry that
police officers are abandoning the force in droves during the lead up
to Election Day. "Even if policemen are resigning, the [Defense
Ministry] will offer the same security," he said.
Ayar added, "Any
delay of elections can only make things worse, and when the insurgents
see that there is an improvement in the country after it, they will
think twice before attacking wrong places or innocent people,"
reflecting assertions previously made that the capture of former dictator
Saddam Hussein, and then the handover of partial sovereignty from the
US occupation government to Iraqs current government last June,
would lead to increased security.
Like the government
and the Electoral Commission, some Iraqis hold out hope, insisting that
the elections present the only prospect for peace in their troubled
homeland.
"The elections
will happen, and I think they are a good idea," said Intisar, a
21-year-old college student in Baghdad. "We need a real government,
and this will help with security," she added.
"I think the
elections are good and I will vote," said Jassim, a 36-year-old
grocery store owner in Khadimiya, a predominantly Shiite Muslim district
in Baghdad. "I hope everybody votes, because the elections will
help, I think."
Still, if current
trends continue, there is a significant chance that far fewer than half
of eligible Iraqis will cast a vote on January 30. The reasons for what
could technically be called "apathy" are of course far more
complex than those faced by most countries. The direct threat of retaliation
by rebels, the constant threat of random violence by terrorists and
even concerns that US or Iraqi security forces will attack or detain
voters in certain places all provoke fear among everyday Iraqis.
Whether from the
vantage point of Baghdad or New York, accurately reporting specific
details of each days events -- or of the overall situation --
is often close to impossible. Discrepancies are the norm as unverified
claims and rumors abound on television, the internet and the streets
of Iraq alike.
Injecting another
level of confusion into the process, several prominent Iraqis have switched
their stances on the elections, changed their alignments or maintained
vague positions in he past two months. Officials involved with Shiite
leader Muqtada Al-Sadrs popular movement have recently made deeply
contradictory statements. While some have said Al-Sadr wishes to distance
himself from the elections, others are themselves listed as candidates.
More still have participated in promoting the vote, and one Baghdad
area Al-Sadr spokesperson told The NewStandard on condition of anonymity
that the widely admired cleric has not ruled out calling for a boycott.
Meanwhile, the most
powerful Iraqi Shiite figure, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, has not
wavered in his support for the elections, which he has been calling
for since last January; but Al-Sistani has so far held off from specifically
endorsing even the slate of candidates that some of his top aides helped
assemble in the venerable clerics own name. That has not stopped
the group from taking advantage of Al-Sistanis perceived support,
going so far as to include his revered image in some of their campaign
posters.
It is also difficult
to gauge the extent to which widespread attacks by rebel groups have
damaged the potential for elections to even be held in substantial areas
of Central and Western Iraq, as well as the northern city of Mosul,
in large part presently under siege by US forces. In fact, the number,
frequency and severity of attacks are likewise hard to determine, with
reports of voter registration sites and materials coming under assault
circulating on a daily basis.
Even determining
how many lists of candidates will actually appear on the January 30
ballot is an elusive task, with the Independent Commission originally
reporting 83, the UN claiming 256 during a ceremonial ordering of the
ballot on December 20, and the Iraqi Independent Commission spokesperson
putting the number at 111 during the recent IRIN interview.
However the process
goes, and whatever its outcome, the one sure thing is that many Iraqis
will refuse to accept the authority of whatever combination of 275 hopefuls
eventually constitutes the countrys first elected assembly.
"The elections
cannot be legitimate because we are under occupation, so I will not
be voting, nor will any of my friends," said Layla Hamad, a Shiite
shop owner.
"Its
not a matter of elections, because those in power will stay in power,"
commented Suhaid, a 23-year old Shiite who is an unemployed computer
science engineer. "This is a big lie and the elections are illegitimate."
© 2004 The NewStandard