Kyoto Is Not
Enough
By Stephen Byers
16 February 2005
The
Independent
Today,
the Kyoto Protocol on climate change comes into effect. It is significant
because it represents agreed international action to tackle global warming.
But it would be a dangerous mistake to believe that Kyoto provides a
solution to the scale of the problem our world now faces.
This is not due
to the refusal of the US to sign up, or the fact that countries which
are rapidly industrialising, such as China and India, are not required
to make cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions. The reality is that
the cuts required by the Protocol are inadequate in the rapidly worsening
situation. In addition, the focus on Kyoto over recent years, and whether
or not it will come into force, has become an excuse for inaction. As
a result the international discussions about the next step to build
on Kyoto have not gained momentum.
Yet the urgency
of the issue is clear. Climate change is no longer an abstract concept.
Polar ice caps are melting. Sea levels are rising. The earth's temperature
is undoubtedly climbing. The five hottest years on record have occurred
in the last seven years.
So, Tony Blair was
right when he said last year that in the long term climate change was
the single most important issue faced by the world. No country, however
rich and powerful, will be immune from its effects. And he has made
the subjecta priority for Britain's leadership this year of the G8,
and for the UK presidency of the European Unionin July.
Such action is not
without political risk. There are two main dangers. The first is that
potentially unpopular political decisions need to be taken now with
the benefit not being seen for 10 or 20 years. There is a mismatch in
timing between the electoral disadvantage and environmental advantage.
Secondly, no nation
acting alone can resolve climate change. There has to be concerted international
action with all countries playing their part. In particular, this means
that somehow the United Stats, which is responsible for a quarter of
the world's carbon emissions, must be engaged.
These are the political
challenges facing Tony Blair. If Britain is to make a success of the
G8 and the EU presidency, then it is going to have to lead by example.
The UK is on track
to go significantly beyond the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions required
under our Kyoto obligations. However, we have also set our own national
target relating specifically to carbon dioxide emissions - to reduce
them by 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010.
As things presently
stand, much more will need to be done if this goal is to be achieved.
For the sake of our international credibility we must remain committed
to this target and use the present review of our climate change programme
to come forward with a package of policies that will put us back on
track to meet this ambitious carbon emissions reduction.
The European emissions
trading scheme has huge potential to change the way thousands of businesses
think about their energy use. Yet it has got off to a faltering start.
The UK Government wishes to revise upwards the level of carbon allocations
to business. The EU believes this proposal is too generous to industry
and that as a result those businesses that cut emissions, and therefore
have carbon allocations to sell, will find few takers, thus undermining
the whole scheme.
This stand-off is
to no one's benefit. The trading scheme could provide a model for the
rest of the world to follow. The EU and the UK urgently need to find
a way forward which puts the long term interests of us all first.
By our own actions
at home we will be in a strong position to lead on the international
stage. The G8 has the potential to be the vehicle by which the US can
engage in discussions on climate change. I know that many regard the
Bush administration as a lost cause. That the Texas oil lobby has a
vice-like grip on energy policy. But there are signs that things are
beginning to change. Post 11 September the issue of energy security
has moved rapidly up the political agenda.
American financial
institutions in general, and the insurance sector in particular, are
increasingly concerned about the costs of extreme weather conditions.
The insurance industry estimates the cost of claims from last summer's
hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will amount to more than $22bn (£11.6bn)
in the Florida alone.
If the mood is changing
in the US then the G8 provides the way forward. If we were to propose
a Climate Group made up of the G8 plus those rapidly developing countries
such as China and India to look at the action necessary to cut greenhouse
gas emissions there is a chance President Bush may be prepared to respond
positively.
Today, we should
give a single cheer for Kyoto but recognise that there needs to be a
fresh injection of political will if we are to achieve a new global
consensus that will provide the world with the means to meet the challenge
of climate change.
The writer is co-chair
of the International Climate Change Task Force