Dire Warnings From
Global Warming Report
By Owen Bowcott
25 October, 2004
The
Guardian
Daffodils,
cod, Christmas trees and the Highlands' ski resorts could have become
victims of global warming by 2050 according to an energy-efficiency
report today. Warmer weather will, instead, introduce vineyards to Scotland,
stingrays and more types of sharks in our coastal waters as well as
termites, scorpions and mosquitoes carrying West Nile virus and dengue
fever, the study - Forecasting the Future - says.
Published by the
Energy Saving Trust, the body established by the government following
the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, the document details the likely effect of
climate change on Britain if nothing is done to cut emissions of greenhouse
gases or reduce energy use.
As much as £200bn-worth
of property and infrastructure including 2m homes could be at risk from
flooding and coastal erosion by the middle of the century, the projection
suggests. The cost of buildings subsidence, exacerbated by weather extremes,
could top £600m a year and storm damage could add another £800m
to annual insurance claims.
"Flooding is
a potential problem as winter rains grow heavier and sea levels rise,"
says the report, produced in conjunction with the UK Climate Impact
Programme. "Investment will be needed to protect London and other
key places from flooding as well as vulnerable installations such as
nuclear power stations.
"Within 50
years parts of East Anglia will have to be heavily defended against
rising seas. Some land could be returned to the sea in more managed
retreats." One such controlled breach of flood defences was carried
out on Humberside last year.
Average temperatures
are expected to be between 1C and 4.5C higher by the end of the century,
when golf courses will become increasingly expensive to maintain due
to long hot summers.
The report is being
released as part of Energy Efficiency Week and comes amid a flurry of
climate change predictions and warnings that not enough is being done
to save energy or provide alternative sources from non-fossil fuel.
Under the Kyoto protocol and other EU agreements, the UK must, by 2010,
reduce its emissions of six major greenhouse gases by 12.5% compared
with levels in 1990. The government has promised to reduce carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions by 20% by the end of this decade and by 60% by 2050.
The trust's projections
are based on the presumption that such demanding targets cannot be met.
Little can be done to halt global warming over the next 30-40 years
because of the vast amount of such gases already released by burning
fossil fuels, the trust believes. But there is a chance to mitigate
the worst impacts of global warming beyond that date.
Last week the WWF
(formerly the World Wide Fund for Nature) criticised the government
for underestimating by 30% the true level of carbon dioxide emissions
for which Britain is responsible.
"The prime
minister's strong words on climate change in the UK are still being
undermined by failure to control CO2 emissions," said the organisation's
director of campaigns, Andrew Lee.
"Emissions
at home are rising under Labour. In addition the economy is driving
up emissions around the world." Food, manufactured goods and raw
materials imported from abroad generate large CO2 emissions abroad,
the WWF says, for which UK consumers are responsible.
This week Barbara
Young, chief executive of the Environment Agency, will reinforce the
message that individual consumers must make important choices. Consumption
and energy use are rocketing, she will tell a conference in Birmingham.
The number of electrical devices used by households in England and Wales
is, for example, due to double this decade. The agency's estimate of
the damage likely to be caused by flooding in 2080, if no action is
taken to control global warming, is £26bn a year. Emissions of
greenhouse gases will need to be cut by 75% in 2050 to prevent such
dangers, she suggests. More than a quarter of all carbon emissions come
from cars and 28% from homes, according to the Energy Saving Trust.
"It is imperative that we become more aware of the energy we use
in our homes and reduce our carbon dioxide emissions," warns Philip
Sellwood, the trust's chief executive.
"Every time
a light is switched on or a video is left on standby, carbon dioxide
is emitted from a power station, causing damage to the environment.
The worst scenario
for 2050 in the trust's report are based on studies of the likely impact
on the UK's environment. Lack of snow could render Scotland's ski resorts
redundant in 20 years. Daffodils, bluebells and crocuses might disappear
because of warmer winters, as would spruce trees. Cod would fail to
flourish in warmer waters and could be replaced by tuna.
Termites are already
spreading north on the continent and are in France. Mosquitoes carrying
fatal diseases could become a regular feature of the countryside. West
Nile fever has already become endemic in the United States due to rising
temperatures. Poisonous spiders could also flourish without winter frosts.
On the way in
Creepy crawlies
Ticks, scorpions and poisonous spiders could become common in the hotter
UK.
Hay fever
Hay fever could be experienced for months on end as trees and grasses
flower far beyond their previous seasons.
Pest control
We will need to take action to control fleas, wasps, mice and rats,
which thrive mild winters and hot summers.
Sharks
More types of sharks and stingrays could visit our warmer waters.
Termites
These pests are spreading north through Europe and could reach the UK.
Diseases
Mosquitoes carrying diseases such as Dengue fever and West Nile virus
have already invaded the US and could become a regular feature here.
On the way out
Cod
Warm waters further threaten dwindling numbers, with cod-and-chips potentially
relegated to a thing of the past.
Scotland's ski resorts
With milder temperatures and less snow, Scotland's ski industry has
already had to diversify into other activities such as mountain biking
and paragliding.
Golf courses
These could become very expensive to maintain in the long, hot summers,
with drought and water restrictions affecting the quality of grass,
and waterlogged conditions in winter.
The village green
Traditional greens could become difficult to maintain, as soaring temperatures
and drought turn them brown.
Dormouse
It could disappear as warmer summers and milder winters threaten its
habitat.
Sunbathing
Holidaymakers are likely to become more cautious of the summer sun.
Daffodils
Warmer winters will threaten daffs and crocuses.