Central Asian
Nations Rethink
US Presence
By Benjamin Robertson
20 July 2005
Aljazeera
The
Great Game, historically played between the Western powers and Russia,
got a shot in the arm in early July when the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation
(SCO), a security alliance dominated by Russia and China, urged the
US and its allies to set a timetable for troop withdrawal from Central
Asian republics.
Great Game is a
term coined in the 19th century to describe the rivalry between the
then imperial powers, Russia and Britain, to gain control of the Central
Asian region.
The new game, played
between the United States and the post-Communist Russia, has the same
objectives, albeit with different players.
The SCO notice to
Washington was followed by statements from the Uzbek and Kyrgyz governments
suggesting they were reconsidering the future of American bases on their
territory.
A day after his
victory in the presidential polls on 17 July, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek
Bakiev said the presence of a US base in the Central Asian nation should
be reconsidered.
A week earlier,
neighbouring Uzbekistan, too, had given warning shots to the US about
its presence in this oil-rich country.
"Central Asia
is a chessboard for competing interests," says Alexander Neill,
head of the Asia Security Programme at the Royal United Services Institute
for Defence and Security Studies in London.
"It has huge
energy resources, and when you look at China's multilateral engagement,
the SCO is clearly something they're concentrating on in order to compete
with American interests in the region ... it's a game of energy strategy
more than anything else."
Formally created
in Shanghai in June 2001 as a security forum to combat terrorism, the
SCO's member states include China and Russia, as well as the Central
Asian republics of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Since 2001, it has
evolved into an economic, energy and security forum.
In a joint declaration,
SCO members said:
"As the active
military phase in the anti-terror operation in Afghanistan is nearing
completion, the SCO would like the coalition's members to decide on
the deadline for the use of the temporary infrastructure and for their
military contingents' presence in those countries."
America and France
have troops based in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Formerly part of
the Soviet Union, Central Asia is seen by Russia and China as their
back yard. Ruled by authoritarian leaders who are often criticised by
human rights observers, the region is also home to extremist Islamic
groups.
The recent American
presence, in the form of oil money and troops - while initially welcomed
by Central Asian states as part of the "war on terror" and
a counter-balance to Russia's own designs on its former provinces -
now appears to be under threat.
After last year's
"orange revolution" in Ukraine - when president-elect Viktor
Yanukovych was forced to step down in the face of popular protests and
allegations of electoral fraud - and this year's unrest in Kyrgyzstan,
when president Askar Akaev fled the country to Russia, the suspicion
is that America is trying to overthrow the area's traditionally dictatorial
and pro-Russian leaders.
Talking at the conference,
Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov suggested that outside forces were
at work "to create instability and undermine the region economically
in order to impose their own development model".
After a massacre
in eastern Uzbekistan in May, when government troops reportedly killed
hundreds of protesting civilians, America and other Western countries
called for an independent inquiry.
Karimov refused,
subsequently curbed America's flying rights from its airbase near the
capital of Tashkent and, this month, issued a notice that listed grievances
with the way the airbase was being run, including a failure to pay landing
and takeoff fees.
Use of the airbase
was negotiated after the attacks of 11 September as part of Americas
invasion of Afghanistan.
Only a week after
the massacre, Karimov was being feted in Beijing, his security policies
supported, and a $600 million oil and gas joint venture signed.
In recent years,
China has been adept at filling the vacuum left by Western companies
either forbidden to, or unwilling to, do business in countries that
have become international pariahs.
Those countries
include Sudan, Zimbabwe, Nepal and Myanmar.
The latest announcement
by the SCO appears to be the next move in China's game of chess. Taking
advantage of a rise in anti-American sentiment among Central Asian leaders,
China, along with Russia, is hoping to woo regional statesmen into signing
firmer security and energy deals.
Behind this is not
only China's own strategic concerns in keeping Central Asia free of
US troops but also China's growing energy needs.
China consumes 5.5
millions barrels of oil a day, 30% of which is imported, and the US
Energy Information Administration estimates China's demand will rise
to 11 million barrels a day by 2025.
Although the majority
of imported oil is shipped on tankers, the ongoing construction of pipelines
across China and into Central Asia may soon change this.
"China definitely
wants to secure resources now heading west, and divert them to head
eastwards," says Neill.
In part, the success of this policy will depend on what the SCO can
become. Greeted with some skepticism by Western observers when it began,
the organisation has mushroomed. Having taken over the presidency this
year, it seems likely that China will press to include Iran, Pakistan,
India and Mongolia - four nations granted observer status at the July
summit.
"They don't
want to give the impression that the SCO is a home-grown baby ... the
Chinese are playing a game to tidy up their international image and
will try and create a major movement ... though not necessarily at the
expense of creating leverage against ASEAN or APEC," says Neill.
Chinese observers
concur. "We see the SCO as a possible forum for ironing out differences
in Asia," says Mei Renyi, an expert on Sino-US relations at the
Beijing Foreign Language University. "As long as it helps to bring
peace and stability in the area, we would like to see the SCO continue.
How it develops will depend on how the incorporation of observer nations
develop."
One thing is clear
- America will not be invited to sit at this table.