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Democracy A Dream

By John Aglionby

The Guardian
13June , 2003

The Burmese military junta has announced that the pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who was detained shortly after her motorcade was attacked on May 30, will be released as soon as "the situation remains normal [sic]."
What this actually means is anybody's guess. Universities, which were closed in the crackdown that followed Ms Suu Kyi's detention, are expected to reopen on Monday.

However, there has been no word on when the mushrooming network of offices belonging to her opposition National League for Democracy might have their padlocks removed.

The reality is that the generals who rule Burma, and specifically the current strongman, Senior General Than Shwe, would like the situation to remain abnormal for years, and preferably for ever. For the last few decades they have, mostly, got what they wish for.

Everything seemed so different 18 months ago. The talks between the junta and 57-year-old Ms Suu Kyi appeared to be making progress. There was talk that her unconditional release from house arrest would be followed by some sort of power-sharing arrangement.

But it never came to pass and, after the death of the last dictator, Ne Win, in December, the influence of the "moderate" (a very relative term when talking about Burmese generals) number three in the junta, Khin Nyunt, who had been pushing the talks, waned.

This strengthening of the hardliners' power coincided with Ms Suu Kyi becoming increasingly active in the provinces. The trip during which she was arrested was her seventh to outlying areas and, by then, it had become abundantly clear that she had lost none of her support while under house arrest for 18 months until May 2002.

Indeed, her popularity had probably increased as the Burmese economy's southward journey accelerated thanks to a massive banking crisis.

The smallest crowds at her rallies numbered in the thousands, and this was despite increasing intimidation from the authorities, and their affiliated groups of assorted thugs, in an effort to prevent people from attending.

In short, the military's decision to give Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD a freer rein than at any time in the previous three years was backfiring.

Thus, faced with a rising tide of democratic sentiment not seen since the 1990 general election, which the NLD won by a landslide, 70-year-old Shwe decided that there was only one way to restore his preferred "normal situation": brutal repression.

It comes as no surprise that he has been remarkably successful, at least in the short term. Ms Suu Kyi and at least 19 of her key lieutenants are either in detention, under house arrest, or have disappeared.

The NLD offices have been sealed, and the opposition network has effectively been put out of operation. Shwe has shuffled hardline proteges into the most important military posts, and was probably also motivated by a belief that he will get away with the crackdown in the long-term.

He had good reason to think this. The US, which sent a team to the site of the Suu Kyi motorcade ambush, near the northern city of Mandalay, and then declared the incident a "premeditated attack" rather than the "clash" that the junta has described, is the only nation to really come out strongly against the junta.

Everyone else's reaction has ranged from an effectively meaningless concern (Europe) to the virtually uninterested (Burma's neighbours and its fellow members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations).

ASEAN has held an attitude of non-interference in members' internal affairs and, apart from a post-September 11 burst of anti-terrorist enthusiasm, has firmly stuck to this.

Malaysia's prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, who exerts more influence than most in Rangoon, has done little beyond saying that it would be better if Ms Suu Kyi were released.

His Thai counterpart, Thaksin Shinawatra, whose relationship with the generals is structured along a pro-business framework, has been equally flaky, even when speaking in the Oval Office.

Burma's main non-ASEAN neighbours, China, India and Bangladesh, have, for years, been pushing to gain control of as much of the country's natural resources as possible. With one word out of place risking a massive decline in influence and contracts, Delhi, Beijing and Dhaka have stayed unsurprisingly silent.

So even if Washington does tighten its sanctions on Rangoon, and even if the EU rattles its smaller and less effectual sabre, Shwe et al will have plenty of other markets to choose from.

The US secretary of state, Colin Powell, today said that he will pressurise ASEAN nations and their dialogue partners to take a firmer stance on Burma when they meet in Phnom Penh next week. However, it is doubtful whether his efforts will bear significant fruit.

So unless something completely unexpected happens, it will be business as usual for the junta, marginalisation as more usual than not for Ms Suu Kyi, and continued suffering, as usual, for the majority of Burma's population.

Democracy is likely to remain a pipedream.