Coercive Population Control
By Jason G. Brent
01 December, 2010
Countercurrents.org
Since no rational human being can dispute the fact that the Earth is finite, no rational human being can dispute the fact that both population growth and economic growth must cease sometime in the future. By definition, neither infinite population growth nor infinite economic growth can occur on the finite Earth. Both the economy and population grow in a compound/geometric/exponential manner. Compound growth is the most powerful force in the universe, it overwhelms everything. Example – if something were to grow at the compound rate of one percent the year, it would double in about 70 years, be four times as large in about 140 years, be eight times as large in about 210 years and be over 1000 times as large in 700 years. In the table below I will use compound growth rates of one half of one percent, 1%, 2%, and 3%.
Number of years at the percentages set forth above
.............................................one-half .........one ...............two ...............three percent
Two times as large .............140...............70.................... 35....................... 24 years
Four times as large............... 280............ 140.................... 70......................... 48 years
Eight times as large.................. 420...............210.................. 105.......................... 72 years
Sixteen times as large................. 560.................. 280................... 140..................... 96 years
Thirty-two times as large.............. 700...................... 350................. 175 ..................120 years
One thousand times as large.............. 1,400................ 700.................. 350.............. 240 years
One million times as large...................... 2,800 ................1,400 ................700 .........480 years
One billion times as large........................ 4,200............... 2,100............... 1,050....... 720 years
If we assume that either the economy or population grew at the compound rate of one half of one percent per year it would take 420 years to reach a level eight times greater than the starting level. If we assume that either grew at the compound rate of 3% per year it would take just 72 years to reach a level eight times greater than the starting level. No rational person could believe that the Earth could support a population eight times as large as the current population (current population about 6.8 – 6.9 billion, eight times as large equals 54.4 – 55.2 billion) and no rational person could believe that the Earth could provide the resources to support an economy eight times as large as the current economy. Therefore, we can assume, absolutely, that both the economy of the world and the human population will never reach a level eight times as great as the current level.
There are three and only three ways in which population growth can be reduced to zero, or made negative, if that is required for the survival of our species. I challenge anyone to find methods to reduce population growth to zero in addition to the three set forth below.
1. Death by wars, with or without weapons of mass destruction, starvation, rape, murder, ethnic cleansing, concentration camps, disease and other horrors beyond the imagination of most human beings after humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of our planet. No rational person would want this method. Therefore, humanity should not consider it.
2. The voluntary action of all of humanity for as long as humanity exists on this planet. There are many,many reasons why this is not a viable solution – in fact I could probably list 20 or 30 of them. However, I will list just a few – a) If the population in absolute numbers had to be reduced by a few billion (and not merely reducing population growth to zero) for our species to survive, voluntary action will never achieve that reduction. There isn't any rational basis to believe any such reduction could be achieved voluntarily. Many experts believe that in order for humanity to survive on this planet even a short period of time, population will have to be substantially reduced. James Lovelock of Gaia fame believes that the maximum human population the Earth can support is 1 billion or less and Prof. David Pimental of Cornell University believes the number is 2 billion or less. b) The voluntary action will have to last as long as humanity existed on the planet. Without going into a long discourse, I can state with almost absolute certainty that will never happen. In fact, I can state with almost absolutely certainty that even if all of humanity agreed to reduce population growth to zero, that control would not last 50 years. c) Voluntary action would require the agreement of every single-family on the face of the Earth. If just one family refused to comply, all of humanity would be destroyed. Example, Mr. Justice Scalia, of the US Supreme Court, had nine children. If each of those had nine and if each of those had nine and if that continued for just under 400 years ( we make the reasonable assumption that each generation is 35 years) more than 31 billion Scalias ( that is billion) would be running around. You can do the math for yourself. d) While not every Catholic follows the dictates of the Church regarding artificial birth control and abortion, enough Catholics follow the dictates of the Church such that it will be impossible to achieve zero population growth by voluntary means at any time in the foreseeable future. e) No nation on the face of the Earth has ever been able to control is population growth without abortion. It is highly unlikely that abortion will be voluntarily accepted by all of the nations of the world in time to prevent the human population from exceeding the carrying capacity of planet. Conclusion – voluntary population control will not prevent the growth of the human population exceeding the carrying capacity of the Earth resulting in the destruction of civilization as we know it and in the horrific deaths of billions of human beings. Looking at the problem another way, assume that there is a 70-80% chance of voluntary population control reducing population growth to zero prior to the destruction of civilization, then there is also a 20- 30% chance that voluntary population control will not reduce population growth to zero in time to prevent our destruction. The question then becomes is – should humanity gamble the risk of the horrific deaths of billions of human beings on a 20 or 30% chance that voluntary population control will fail. The answer to that question should be that humanity cannot afford to gamble its survival on the chance that voluntary population control will fail.
3. Coercive population control is the last choice. Before discussing this choice, it must be understood by all of humanity and all the leaders of humanity that the choice is simple – coercive population control or the horrific deaths of billions of human beings when our population has exceeded the carrying capacity of this planet. The analysis is simple – there are three and only three ways that population growth can be reduced to zero in time to prevent our destruction, or made negative if that is necessary, and the first two choices are not, in reality, choices. No one would want the control of population by the horrors set forth in choice number one above and choice number two, voluntary action will not work. The question then becomes----will the leaders of humanity understand that the only way in which the horrific deaths of billions of human beings can be prevented is by coercive population control. The next question becomes – will the leaders of humanity have the guts to take the necessary actions?
Let me summarize this essay simply. Do you agree that there are three and only three ways which population growth can be reduced to zero, or made negative if that is necessary? If you agree that there are only three methods, then, in reality, there are only two methods, voluntary population control and coercive population control, as no one would want population to be controlled by the deaths and other horrors which will occur once humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth. The last question becomes – can you present a logical and factually supported case that the voluntary action of all of humanity will reduce population growth to zero, or make it negative, in time to prevent the human population from exceeding the carrying capacity of the Earth resulting in the horrific deaths of billions of human beings? If you cannot make such a case, the only choice left is coercive population control.
