Peak Oil:Time's
Up
By Jeff Berg
02 November, 2007
Countercurrents.org
Given EWG's findings of a 2006
oil peak and a halving of oil production by 2030, and ASPO's declaration
that the facts best fit a scenario where all liquid fuels peak around
2012, severe economic discontinuities can now clearly be seen to be
unavoidable.
http://tinyurl.com/ysqax8
http://tinyurl.com/yvrjtu
N.B. The Guardian article
by Ashley Seager on the EWG report contains a factual error. I.e. The
decline rate that halves oil production by 2030 is 3% not the 7% suggested
in the article. If you all remember how to apply the 'Rule of 70'. In
this case 2030 -2007 = 23; 23 goes into 70 three times; therefore a
3% decline rate.
The EWG report never suggests a 7% decline rate. http://tinyurl.com/2zc8hg
Mr. Seager quite simply got it wrong.
My special thanks to Alfred Bartlett for reminding me about this rule
as I had forgotten it. If you have not watched his video presentation
on exponential growth you are in for a treat.
http://tinyurl.com/25nk9h
I had been secretly hoping for a plateau in liquid fuel production that
went out to 2015 to give us all more time to get the massive changes
that need to be made underway. That hope is now clearly illusory.
This is not to say that this is a story without very significant upsides.
From the point of view of environmental degradation and global warming
for example very obviously very significant changes needed to be made
and sustained high prices and reduced availability will do what international
agreements have failed to do. I.e. Lower consumption and our dependence
and hasten the timetable for change.
My hope was predicated on getting us all used to less growth and more
contraction while leaving enough energy available for a "softer
landing", less serious discontinuities, and enough energy for the
carbon chasm bridge building project that is required of this generation.
This was always a very long shot hope I readily acknowledge as we are
today less united and capable of concerted action than at any time in
the post-war era. Who are "WE"
anyway? "Depends" is the only answer "We" all can
agree on.
The Bush Administration has "succeeded" beyond their wildest
imaginings in discrediting the UN's voice and marginalizing the voice
of Internationalism. What they failed to take into account is that their
machinations have done an even "better" job of turning people
away from America.
It is however essential to note that one should not exclude Americans
from this equation. For one group that the Bushies have not silenced
are America's dissidents. As it has been ever since the days of Thoreau
and Twain it remains today. I.e. The fiercest, most lucid, and devastating
critics of America's actions are American citizens. I take some measure
of hope from this fact as small as it may be when compared to the twin
towers of Energy & Emissions that we must hurdle before we can rest.
www.postcarbontoronto.org
www.pledgeTOgreen.ca
Crude oil hits record $93, fuelling fears of a recession :
Yesterday, crude oil climbed above $93 a barrel in New York for the
first time, as Mexico shut one fifth of its production and the dollar
fell to a record low.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3109961.ece
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