The
Last Refuge
By Uri Avnery
14 November, 2007
Gush Shalom
Israel
is an island in the global sea. We live in a bubble. This week I was
sharply reminded of this.
I was returning home from
Germany. On the eve of the flight, all TV networks, from CNN and BBC
to the German channels, were reporting on the events in Pakistan. In
the airplane, I opened Israel's largest circulation tabloid, Yedioth
Aharonoth, in order to read about the Pakistani mess. I did not find
any mention of it on page 1. Nor on page 2. I found a small item on
page 27. The first pages were devoted to something much more important:
the shouts of protest by right-wing football hooligans when they were
requested to stand up in memory of Yitzhak Rabin.
The next day, Yedioth found
an Israeli angle that enabled it to put Pakistan on the front page after
all: the fear that the Pakistani nuclear bomb would fall into the hands
of Osama bin Laden, who would aim it at Israel. Hallelujah, there is
again something to be afraid of.
But the putsch by Pervez
Musharaf is a serious matter. It could well have far-reaching effects
for the world in general, and for Israel in particular.
THE MAIN victim - besides,
of course, the hundreds of political activists who have been thrown
into prison - is George W. Bush.
Machiavelli said that it
is preferable for the prince to be feared rather than loved. In the
same vein, it can be said that it is preferable for a president to be
hated rather than derided.
And derision is what George
W. is attracting. He has asserted in the past that his main task was
to bring democracy to the Muslim world, and has assured us that the
implementation of this aim was well under way. That is a laughable pretense.
What is happening in fact?
- In Iraq one tyrant has
been overthrown, and dozens of small local tyrants have taken over.
The country is bleeding and falling apart. The "democratic elections"
have brought to power a government that hardly governs the Green Zone
in Baghdad, which has to be secured by American soldiers.
- In Afghanistan an "elected"
president hardly rules the capital, Kabul. In the rest of the country,
local chieftains are in control. And the Taliban are slowly and steadily
re-conquering the country.
- In Iran, democratic elections
have brought to power an uninhibited politician with a big mouth and
small achievements, whose favorite occupation is to curse the American
Crusaders and the "Zionist entity".
- In Syria there is a stable
dictatorship, which can carry on mainly because the Syrians believe
that any alternative would be worse.
- Turkey is ruled by a religious
Islamic government, with the wife of the president wearing a headscarf.
More than 10 million Kurdish citizens are oppressed and discriminated
against. Not a few of them are fighting a guerilla war. In the course
of the campaign against the Kurds, the Turkish army is about to invade
neighboring Iraq, happy to have an opportunity to destroy the practically
independent Kurdish regime there.
- Lebanon is as far from
democracy as ever. Real democratic elections, in which every citizen
can vote directly for parliament without sectarian divisions, are out
of the question. A new president has to be elected, but that is well-nigh
impossible, the gulf between the sects is so wide. This week, Hizbullah
conducted large-scale maneuvers near the Israeli borders. Even the Israeli
army was impressed.
- In Egypt, Jordan and Saudi
Arabia, the three "moderate" (read: dictatorial and pro-American)
countries, there is a very original kind of democracy. Political opposition
is languishing in prison.
- In Palestine, impeccable
elections were held under strict international supervision, the only
really democratic elections in the Arab world. George Bush would have
been proud of them, if - alas - they had not been won by the "wrong"
crowd - Hamas. Now, Israeli army intelligence prophesies that President
Mahmoud Abbas, Bush's favorite, may fall immediately after the Annapolis
conference, if, as expected, it ends in failure.
- And now, Pakistan. It seemed
that there, at least, Bush was harvesting successes. He had brought
back Benazir Bhutto, another Bush favorite, and everything looked fine:
a democratic regime was about to be re-installed, the president was
about to hang up his uniform and form a coalition with Bhutto. But then
a bomb exploded next to her armored car, dozens were killed. The president-general,
who was just waiting for such an opportunity, carried out a coup d'etat
against himself, and, instead of his moderate dictatorship, has set
up a much more harsh regime, like a Pakistani version of the late Saddam
Hussein.
As in a Hollywood comedy,
George Bush is standing there with a custard pie splattered all over
his face. He looks ridiculous.
NO PRESIDENT likes being
ridiculous. Scary - OK. Evil - OK. Dumb - OK. But ridiculous - never!
That may have a direct bearing
on a question that is worrying the whole world, myself included: Will
he attack Iran?
The temptation is almost
overwhelming. In another year, his term in office will come to an end.
After eight years, he has nothing to show for it - except a continuous
series of failures. But a man who (he says) holds daily talks with God
cannot leave the stage of history like that.
He is longing for some sort
of success in Annapolis. At the most, there will be an empty declaration
signed by the leaders of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. There
will be some good photo opportunities, but that will not satisfy the
lions. Something much bigger is needed, something that will leave its
mark in the annals of history.
What better than saving humanity
from the Iranian nuclear bomb?
The German language has the
expression "Flucht nach vorne" - an escape forwards. If you
don't know what to do any more, attack your nearest enemy. Thus Napoleon
invaded Russia, followed years later by Hitler. Bush may attack Iran
for similar reasons.
I suspect that the decision
has already been made and that the preparations are already rolling.
There is no proof of that, but Bush behaves as if he has decided on
war.
Washington's huge propaganda
machine is working full-time to prepare the ground. Anyone who opposes
is run over. According to the polls, the American public's support for
the war is rising from day to day. The majority is already in favor.
The new French president, behaving like a hyperactive schoolboy, has
already jumped on the bandwagon and has supplanted Tony Blair as Bush's
poodle.
ISRAEL IS SUPPOSED to play
a central role in this piece.
Here, too, a huge brain-washing
machine is already at work. The Foreign Office has joined the effort
and has started a world-wide campaign to besmirch Mohammed al-Baradei,
the highly respected chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Every day, the obedient media publish reports by correspondents and
commentators, who are but thinly disguised spokesmen for the army and
the government. They tell us that within a year and a half Iran will
already have a nuclear bomb, and that this will be the end of Israel
and the world. As the Hebrew expression goes, the remedy must come before
the disease. Therefore: Bomb! Bomb! Bomb!
One of the possible scenarios:
Israel will bomb first. The Iranians will respond by launching missiles
at Israel. The US will enter the action "to save Israel".
Which American politician will dare to object? Who? Hillary Clinton??
Bush is dreaming again about
a war without American casualties. A "surgical" air strike.
A hail of "smart" bombs pours down on thousands of Iranian
targets - nuclear, governmental, military and civil. What a sweet dream:
Iran soon surrenders. The regime of the Ayatollahs collapses. The son
of the late Shah takes his place on the throne of his father, who himself
was once restored to power by American bayonets.
As I have said in the past,
I am not convinced by this scenario. What will actually happen is that
Iran will close the strait of Hormuz. Through this strait, named after
an ancient Persian deity, flows 20% of the world's oil supplies. It
is 270 km long and, at its narrowest, only 35 km wide. A few missiles
and mines are enough to close it. That would be tolerable if the war
lasted a few days. But if it goes on for weeks and months, it will cause
a profound world-wide crisis.
And the war will indeed go
on. There will be no escape for the US from committing very large ground
forces to conquer first the region bordering on the straits, and then
the entire big country. The US has no available ground forces left -
even before the American forces in Iraq are exposed to missile attacks
from Iran and to guerilla actions from the Shiites, who make up the
majority in Iraq.
This will not be a quick
and easy war. Iran is different from Iraq. Unlike Iraq, with its various
peoples and sects, Iran is comparatively homogenous. This war will be
an Iraq war multiplied by 10, perhaps by 100.
AND WE? How shall we get
through this war?
Since the government of Israel
and its American allies are pushing with all their political might for
the attack, Israel will not be able to avoid contributing to the fighting,
if the Americans request it. First our Air Force will be deployed, later
land forces may be required.
But Israel itself will also
become a battlefield. The pathetic missiles of Saddam Hussein caused,
in their time, panic in Tel-Aviv. What will the Iranian missiles do?
The Arab governments will
be compelled to support the US, at least with their tongues. But the
hearts and souls of the Arab peoples, from Morocco to Iraq, will be
with the Iranians defending themselves against the Americans and Israelis.
Especially if the Annapolis meeting does end, as expected, without bringing
redemption to the Palestinian people.
There is only one way to
come out of this in one piece - not to get into it in the first place.
But, after all the dismal failures he has suffered in Iraq, in Afghanistan
and now in Pakistan - what can persuade Bush to resist the temptation?
And how to persuade Ehud Olmert, who longs for a way out of the quagmire
he is stuck in?
It has been said that "Patriotism
is the last refuge of a scoundrel". For a failed politician, the
last refuge is war.
Leave
A Comment
&
Share Your Insights
Comment
Policy
Digg
it! And spread the word!
Here is a unique chance to help this article to be read by thousands
of people more. You just Digg it, and it will appear in the home page
of Digg.com and thousands more will read it. Digg is nothing but an
vote, the article with most votes will go to the top of the page. So,
as you read just give a digg and help thousands more to read this article.