Status-Quo Of Afghan Instability
By Rahmatillo Ahmedov
03 October, 2012
Countercurrents.org
Current year was replete with statements by representatives of American political establishment on the progress made in combating insurgents and killings of top leaders of notorious terror groups in Afghanistan. This has given them certitude to claim that the transition of security to the Afghan military/police is efficient and bringing fruitful results. However, a current situation hints to the opposite given the latter development of events that has deteriorated security situation in that war-torn country. This makes one wonder what the situation will be like after the pullout of foreign troops, if it of course happens in a full scale. Earlier, there was hearsay about the construction of U.S. military bases across Afghanistan. Even if it is true, it is most probably going to accommodate lesser military personnel which are unlikely going to engage in grand military operations within the country. The only logical motif behind stay in Afghanistan can be preventive and largely geopolitical one.
Taking the present situation into account, it seems both U.S. and ISAF are facing new security flaws and challenges. This can be understood by sets of attacks against them made in a completely new style by Taliban and other sinister networks. The latter insider attacks on Camp Bastion in Helmand province where British soldiers based are clear indication of their new tactics. Such an attack has resulted in the killings of 2 U.S. marines and destruction of 6 American marine jets by militants who entered the base dressed in the army uniform. According to ISAF, the assault conducted by approximately 15 insurgents - organized in three teams and wearing American uniforms – “penetrated at one point of the perimeter fence” and “executed a well-coordinated attack against the airfield”. In fact the attack on Bastion where military facilities were damaged is not the only case. In late August an attack was made by insurgents who launched a rocket on Bagram airbase which damaged an Air Force C-17 cargo plane assigned to carry Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey who arrived to Afghanistan to meet with ISAF commander Gen. John Allen and Afghan security officials. Similarly, in the middle of August a U.S. Blackhawk helicopter was attacked by the Taliban and killed 11 people, including 7 Americans.
A slightly different attack (in rather old fashioned manner) in the form of suicide bombing happened on September 18 in Kabul airport which killed at least 13 people, including foreign civilians working for international aviation company. Although the latest attacks are connected with the anger over the film depicting Prophet Mohammad made by American movie director, it shows fragility and incompetence of local security forces to provide safety in public venues such as airports. It is also a sign of insurgents’ new successful war strategy which is getting rapidly popular. This year alone there were 38 insider attacks that killed 53 NATO soldiers.
Another crucial issue that remains hurdle in the provision of security in Afghanistan is the activities of various internecine groups affiliated with Haqqani network across the country. Such groups that operate primarily in Pakistan’s tribal areas have now spread to Afghan provinces and are involved in the killings of suspected informants, assassination of public figures and intimidation of population while imposing severe punishments for those who collaborate both with foreign and local forces. Although this year demonstrated a public resistance against these groups, they still hold much influence in the Afghan society. Last year alone, they have been responsible for multiple assassinations and public executions. As for Haqqani itself, one can easily imagine what the consequence of inclusion of Haqqani Network into a black terror list will be like. According to report by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point this group have had evolved into a “sophisticated, diverse and transnational crime network”. Since 2008, they have attacked the Indian Embassy in Afghanistan, struck hotels, restaurants, the headquarters of the ISAF and the American Embassy. It is believed to be backed by Pakistan which United States has very complex relations with since November 2011. With the absence of even signs of concessions, the US/Af/Pak relations still remain complex.
At this stage, operation Enduring Freedom seems to endure ordeal as its mission in Afghanistan comes to an end. Given the fact the Afghan security personnel that are supposed to fight along their side are now fighting against them. This reduces the will of its troops to conduct mutual exercises with Afghan security forces and president Karzai’s castling of cadres does not help to ameliorate this state of affairs. Ostensibly, this indicates that a mission of training the Afghan police is collapsing on the eve of their departure. Another reason is that U.S., relations with Pakistan remain stiff and none of the sides seem to be interested in negotiations. But much has to do with this protracted war itself and illusionary believe that it will eventually bring peace to Afghanistan remain baseless, vague and doubtful. There is an impression that soldiers do not believe in this either and are exhausted from their stay there. But this does not help them, because attacks against them are continued and there is still much time before this war can officially be declared as finished. If U.S. which is currently occupied with the presidential election at home is not going to pay a serious attention to this tendency and renew its negotiation both with Pakistan and Taliban, the number of attacks is likely to increase resulting in the killing of more soldiers in the coming years. But, for the time being, their fate as well as the future of Afghanistan remain indefinite.
Rahmatillo Ahmedov has worked as an expert on Afghanistan and the Middle East in the Tashkent based Center for Political Studies. Author of publications dedicated to Afghanistan, the Middle East, Cyber-security and Soft Power. An alumnus of Asian Forum on Global Governance organized by Observer Research Foundation (India) and Ziet Stiftung (Germany) annually held in New Delhi.
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