What Will Modi Do Next?
By Firdaus Ahmed
11 April, 2014
Subcontinentalmusings Blog
The well known wisdom of the Indian voter can yet prove opinion polls and media speculation drastically wrong. Just as in 2004 when the ‘India Shining ‘campaign came a cropper, Modi may yet bite the dust. However, it is worth anticipating what the BJP may set out to do on the security front if it manages to subvert the electorate by cobbling up an opportunistic coalition.
Wisely the BJP delayed releasing its manifesto till the last minute to make sure that its contents would not affect the personality cult built up around NaMo. The manifesto has three elements that are likely to vitiate societal, Indian and subcontinental security: the building of a temple at Ayodhya; introduction of the uniform civil code; the removal of Article 370; and the rethinking of the nuclear doctrine respectively.
But first is a look at Modi’s cryptic remark at the manifesto release function stating that his will not be a policy of revenge. This is a loaded remark and in itself carries an implied threat. He probably had India’s minority on his mind, hoping that his remarks will influence them to be milder in their voting patterns towards him and his party. Given the mobilisation within the Muslim community, he is unlikely to make headway. This will no doubt keep him for the 270 mark even if he does manage to cobble up a coalition. This will no doubt further put him off further; making it is unlikely that he would spare even the sops usually spared for India’s largest minority by its secular state under the Congress.
A poor beginning as this will goad him on to addressing the three bullet points of the top 10 in the BJP manifesto of concern to India’s minority. First would be completing the demolition agenda at Ayodhya of the early nineties in which he had earned his spurs as a pracharak. This will also be to keep his fellow Hindutva travellers busy while he gets on with the task of making India safe for corporate takeover, quite like he did during his long reign in Gujarat. The Sangh Parivar’s use of the temple issue to mobilise support for itself, will likely increase social tensions across India.
This will set the stage for the legislative manoeuvring that will inevitably attend introduction of the uniform civil code, a left-over from the BJP’s earlier stint at the Center. The supposed motivation for the bill of ensuring women’s rights will be used to further pressurise the minority. Pushing it to the corner will be useful to instigate the hotheads in the minority to mount a violent challenge that will then justify a resounding crackdown on its ghettos and strongholds. The ensuing strong arm methods will be easier to swallow for the middle class bent on voting Modi to power to further its economic interests.
Any reservations in some quarters will be smothered by a nationalist build up to remove Article 370. This will no doubt provoke a backlash in Kashmir, perhaps just as intended. The army, with its hands full restoring order then, will be too busy and well placated with the needed powers and military goodies, to bother as to what is being done to India’s polity.
Resulting troubles in Kashmir will easily be attributed to the resumption of the long predicted Pakistani mischief in wake of departure of the Americans from Afghanistan. This will ease the rethinking promised on the nuclear doctrine. The first casualty is expected to be the No First Use principle. Jettisoning it will not amount to much in itself, since in any case Pakistanis find it both less than credible and quite unnecessary in light of superiority of India’s conventional forces. But the advantage will be in buttressing Modi’s image as a ‘strongman’ and as a message to Pakistan to avoid provocation.
Using the opportunity for a nuclear rejig, Modi could ‘kick upstairs’ the current army chief, Bikram Singh, into being India’s first permanent chairman of the Chief’s of Staff Committee. Recall that Bikram Singh’s bête noire is General VK Singh of ‘DoB’ (date of birth) fame, the BJP contender for the Ghaziabad seat. During VK Singh’s fracas with the government, the innuendo was that the chain of succession was manipulated by the Congress to get Bikram Singh into the chair. As permanent chairman of COSC he would be a general without an army. It will leave open the army chief’s chair that Modi could fill in with a candidate of his choice; thus undercutting the next one in the current line of succession, the vice chief General Suhag. These moves, reminiscent of the sacking of Baghwat in the early part of the BJP’s last tenure, will keep the military quiet while Modi goes about his India reset.
The contrary view that such fears are unfounded because Modi may wait till he gains a measure of Delhi is a fair one to discuss. Modi has time with him. He would like to first win his national credentials and legitimacy. For this he needs stability that can do without internal buffeting. Therefore, he is unlikely to open up an internal front. Externally, he may even take up the olive branch on offer of Nawaz Sharif. This will enable extending his tenure into subsequent terms in order to bring about a more comprehensive change in India in the Hindutva image.
Even as the Modi strategy unfolds into his tenure, in either case of his moving either sooner or later, India is in for interesting times in the Chinese sense of the word. These may be sooner than later since Modi may want to strike while the iron is hot. He is also aware of the India Shining debacle and that his tenure can be cut short. Therefore, he will be a man in a hurry, true to the image he has built up and out to prove it is not a cardboard cutout. However, whether this feared future will materialize underestimates the famed wisdom of the wizened Indian voter.
Firdaus Ahmed is a freelance writer on security affairs. His blog is Think South Asia: http://www.subcontinentalmusings.blogspot.in/
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