Economic Revival Vital To Peace
By Nimer Ahmad
11 November,
2008
Countercurrents.org
Pakistan found itself in the middle of crisis after 9/11 as high stakes and new realities compelled its top brass to stop their twenty years of interference in Afghanistan.
As events unfolded the international media turned the spotlight on Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan during the bombardment at Tora Bora. Unfortunately, Pakistan was at the receiving end this time.
Repeated allegations were levelled that cross-border terrorist activities were being carried out from Pakistani side bringing the country under pressure to the extent that it had to seal the Durand Line after sixty years.
New hostile Afghan setup, military presence on both sides of the border and commitment to stopping economic and strategic support for Taliban led towards a new phenomenon, i.e. “Pakistan Threek-e-Taliban”.
The uprising in FATA has captured the attention of governments and independent institutions the world over. In order to sort out the problem and have a better understanding of the area different studies have been conducted nationally and internationally. Most of such reports, besides having a clear distinction between both Taliban sects, describe Pakistani sect as Taliban as well.
“Pakistan New Generation of Terrorists” is one such report issued by the Council of Foreign Relation, an independent organization, on February 6, 2008. The report while describing Pakistani sect suggests, “...hard-core breakaway children militia...” This sentence is often used to describe the armed groups of Africa. While studying those groups and violence foreign institutions always highlight the state of the economy that led to violence.
In the instant case it is hard to find any such report that highlights the economic problem of the area. In some reports there are glimpses of economic problems but results are not interpreted on the basis of economic factors. In this article I am going to furnish economic facts and figures besides dilating upon the importance of Pak-Afghan border for locals.
Literacy rate of FATA is 17.42 per cent; 29.51 per cent of male and only 3 per cent of women receive education. There is one bed for every 2,179 people and one doctor for every 7,670 people. 43 per cent of locals have access to clean drinking water. 60 per cent of population lives below the poverty line. It was not before 1997 elections that the universal suffrage was granted to FATA.
FATA had historically been neglected by federal governments as governments control the area with the help of FCR and political agent. They prefer to pocket ‘Maliks’, under the head of PA. For economic control and viability of PAs, they were given the powers of chief executives: they approve and carry out development work; they can issue import and export permit of timber, wheat and some household commodities, without any accountability. Current resistance against abolishing FCR is due to these powers.
Unwilling governments, black laws and slim prospects of economic growth for tribal agencies compel them to sustain the old socio-economic pattern with adjacent Afghan provinces. FATA consists of seven agencies: South Waziristan; North Waziristan; Kurram Agency; Khyber Agency; Orakzai Agency; Mohmand Agency; and Bajaur Agency. Parallel to them on the other side of the border is Paktika, Khost, Paktia, Nangarhar and Kunarh. Almost all Afghan tribes have kith and kin in Pakistan. Therefore, regardless of Durand Line, they came to help each other in time of crisis. Achakzais, Waziris, Toris, Shinwaris, Mohmands have their relatives on either side of the border. Only Afridis and Mahsuds don’t have a blood tie on the other side.
Hostile Afghan government, international accusations on tribal areas for cross-border terrorism and military deployment on both sides of the border had changed the centuries old socio-economic pattern of FATA.
Arms trafficking, drugs trafficking and smuggling of household commodities are the biggest sources of income in these areas. Some may have qualms about this trade as it is illegal in a federalized constitution but in strong tribal practices it’s “trade”.
Khyber Agency in FATA has a long history of arms manufacturing. During Afghan war manufacturing of sophisticated conventional arms was introduced to this area. Not only Khyber but other agencies also have made their mark in this business. The manufacturers here produce copies of arms to be marketed in Pakistan as well as in India, Iran and Afghanistan.
After the ouster of Taliban in Afghanistan international forces pressurized Pakistan to stop the trafficking. It was presumed that Taliban were not only getting recruitments from FATA but also arms to fight. This is due to deep-rooted interests and having a clear understanding about the economic viability of this trade and aftermaths of any such restriction that bureaucracy just cut off the Afghan route of trafficking, putting strain on some agencies but not at large.
Drug pushing is the other major source of income. Poppy and opium are the major drugs of Afghanistan. Processing of dry opium into heroine is also done in Afghanistan. According to the Washington Post, 21 November 1996, Taliban allowed processing laboratories to move in Afghanistan from FATA, when Pakistani authorities cracked down on the manufacturers of narcotics.
According to a report issued by the State Department in January 2008, around 93 per cent of global opium is produced and marketed by Afghanistan Drug Mafia. According to UN’s World Drug Report 2007, Afghanistan produces 82 per cent of total global opium. As many as 2.9 million people are associated with this work. About 62 per cent of the opium is produced in southern provinces, the biggest battle ground in Afghanistan.
The bulk of opium is produced in 10 out of 32 provinces in Afghanistan. These provinces are Farah, Nimroz, Helmand, Kandhar, Uruzgan, Zabul, Nangarhar, Kunarh, Balkh and Badakhshan. Nangarhar, Helmand and Kandhar are the most fertile provinces for the harvest.
Among these fertile provinces, Nangarhar and Kunarh lie on the border of FATA. The harvest of these two provinces was exported to FATA from where it was smuggled to interior Pakistan, India and other countries of the region.
From World Drug Report one finds out that the production of opium is decreased in these provinces. The market access is the reason behind this decline. In 2004 Nangarhar, Kunarh and even Paktika, not a conventional high producer, has a high production but this new trade route was unable to succeed. After 2004 decline is more evident in these provinces. According to 2006 estimates the total potential value of harvest accounts to farmers, laboratory owners and Afghan traffickers reached about $300 billion.
Consumer goods smuggling is another major occupation of FATA. This is directly related to the ordinary businessmen. This smuggling includes timber, used cars, electronics, iron, garments, and wide range of toiletries, perfumes and cosmetics. Things on this list are exported to Afghanistan at low prices or on humanitarian grounds by Pakistan and other countries.
Most of exports are smuggled back to Pakistan at a very low price. Major share of smuggling was previously done through FATA. According to the government, Pakistan bears annually Rs 100 billion loss from smuggling and its major cause is Afghan border.
Before 9/11 a businessman with links on either side can easily go on with his proceedings without any permit. International and Pakistani forces are trying to marginalize support for Taliban putting efforts to end cross-border activities. During this attempt they had cut a major part of this trade.
Today most of the trade is done through proper channel. Military presence is not the only cause of trade evaporation from this region. The fall of Taliban has also made a shift in the Afghan economy. It is importing construction material, energy generators, food, small machinery, tools and clothing. In last five years or so Afghanistan has generated a local demand.
Direct remittances for political and military groups were another major factor in the local economy. The government of Pakistan had followed British policy of FATA. Hand-picked local elders and chiefs were compensated for their loyalties. Its worst example is Afghan war. In Afghan war these two sections were the eyes of the military establishment and were given high rewards for their services.
After the end of the Afghan war the strategic depth policy and interference in Afghanistan issues allowed this remittance to flow. Baitullah Mehsud, the chieftain of the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan, Maulana Faqir Muhammad and Maulana Qazi Fazlullah of the Tehrik-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TSNM), and Mangal Bagh Afridi of the Lashkar-e-Islami in the Khyber Agency were the night eyes of the military. They were directly related to this remittance and breeding arms to pick up arms. After 9/11 this economic support for the elite of the agencies were also dried up due to liberal posture of the military.
According to government-owned FATA website majority of Wairs and Mehsuds of South Waziristan are pastoral. A large number of Mehsuds of South Waiziristan are employed in army. Mehsuds have also taken to business in Tank and Dera Ismail Khan and run bases and trucks. A sizeable number of people in North Waziristan earn their living by going abroad for labour. Local people have also invested in transport business. People in Kurram Agency are not literate and earn their living by farming as tenants. Main occupation of the Orakzai Agency is mining with reserves of coal in various areas including Sheikhan, Mishti and Feroz Khel. The people of Khyber Agency are also shopkeepers, merchants and transporters. Mohmand Agency’s source of income is very limited in general except agriculture and some trade business. Bajaur Agency’s economic circle includes agriculture farming, small scale business and working on daily basis.
These facts suggest that there is very little left in terms of economy in the area. Lesser chances of economic growth are producing higher level of resistance against the military. Bajaur and, Soth and North Waziristan are the biggest battle grounds in FATA. These economic facts suggest the cause of this.
In February 1997, Taliban had to face first uprising against their regime in Kunarh. The people of the province used to earn their living by smuggling goods in Pakistan. Most of the historians are convinced that Taliban have tried to stop the timber smugglers of area giving rise to revolt. Kunarh has its border with Bajaur and Mohmand Agency. It is the major trade route from Jalalabad to Peshawar. The uprising was associated with their dependency over Pakistani market.
The major demand of the tribal leader is to remove military posts. These military posts are not just for terrorists; their main target is to stop locals from cross-border activities. These cross-border activities are not yet divided into economic and military category. So both activities are punished with the same zeal.
One can’t deny the presence of religious forces and their local support. Religion has been a major driving force in locals. But economic cut-off and slim prospects for future are intensifying the situation. Former Mujahideen are exploiting the ground situation. Revoking FCR is step towards recognizing their economic revival but it needs practical efforts.
Nimer Ahmad is an MBA student, and a free lance translator. He has written articles in Urdu in different Daily's of Pakistan. He can be reached at [email protected]
